En la noche de elecciones, los nevadenses se fueron a dormir sin saber qué candidato presidencial ganó los seis votos electorales del estado.
La contienda entre la Vicepresidenta Kamala Harris y el Expresidente Donald Trump está demasiado reñida para declarar el resultado hasta la medianoche del Dia de las Elecciones, con casi 1.1 millones de votos reportados. Actualmente, Trump tiene una ventaja de 5 puntos porcentuales, con numerosos votos del Día de las Elecciones y boletas por correo que llegaron tarde, incluyendo las entregadas este martes, que aún no se han contabilizado.
Aunque el martes por la noche varios medios de comunicación declararon a Trump como ganador de la presidencia, los resultados de la contienda presidencial de Nevada determinarán si Trump arrasará en los siete estados en disputa, ya que se espera que gane en los seis restantes. Cuando Trump obtuvo el triunfo en 2016, se llevó todos los estados pendulares o de tendencia partidista indecisa en dicho año, excepto Nevada.
Mientras tanto, los Republicanos han ganado el control del Senado de los EE.UU. pero la Senadora Demócrata por Nevada Jacky Rosen está enfrascada en una reñida batalla contra el Republicano Sam Brown, quien hasta ahora está teniendo un desempeño inferior al de Trump, particularmente en el Condado Washoe.
Eso significa que la única cámara federal sin decidir es la Cámara de Representantes de los EE.UU., donde dos de los tres escaños en manos de los Demócratas en Nevada siguen demasiado reñidos para declarar un ganador, y el Congresista Demócrata por Nevada Steven Horsford prevaleció cómodamente en el Distrito 4, que incluye partes del Condado Clark y la zona rural de Nevada.
Colette Phair observa los resultados de las elecciones durante la Fiesta Demócrata de seguimiento de Resultados Electorales en Aria el martes 5 de noviembre de 2024. (Foto de Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Desde que Harris ingresó a la contienda presidencial por primera vez en julio, las encuestas entre ambos candidatos se mantuvieron muy parejas, con ninguno de los candidatos capaz de establecer una ventaja lo suficientemente grande como para predecir al ganador.
Trump cambió el terreno político en Las Vegas en junio cuando prometió poner fin a los impuestos a las propinas; mientras que, en agosto, Harris procedió con su propia propuesta de eliminar los impuestos a las propinas y aumentar el salario mínimo en Las Vegas.
Los resultados de la noche del martes refuerzan lo reñida que está la contienda — al menos en Nevada.
Actualmente, la participación electoral es de casi 1.1 millones. En 2020, Nevada registró una participación récord de más de 1.4 millones de votos. Como no hay cifras disponibles sobre las papeletas de voto por correo entregadas el Día de las Elecciones, es difícil predecir la participación de este año.
Con la contienda demasiado reñida para declarar a un ganador, el ganador probablemente se decidirá con base en las boletas por correo que lleguen después del 5 de noviembre. Los Republicanos presentaron sin éxito una demanda para bloquear el recuento de estas boletas de voto por correo, que se pueden recibir hasta este sábado, así como de las papeletas de voto por correo sin matasellos que lleguen antes de las 5 p. m. de este viernes.
Trump está intentando ser el primer Republicano en ganar una contienda presidencial en Nevada desde George W. Bush en 2004. Desde entonces, los Demócratas han podido ganar mediante una barrera significativa en el Condado Clark, donde vive el 70 por ciento de los votantes, para contrarrestar los totales de votos Republicanos en el Condado Washoe y los condados rurales.
Esa fórmula se ha visto amenazada en este ciclo electoral ante la disminución de la ventaja en el registro de votantes.
Pero en lugar de representar ganancias Republicanas, el mayor cambio en la dinámica del registro de votantes ha sido un parteaguas en el registro no partidista — impulsado por la implementación del registro automático de votantes en la campaña electoral estatal de 2020.
El camino de Trump hacia la victoria en el estado es asegurar, como ha ocurrido en ciclos anteriores, que los Republicanos participen en tasas más altas que los Demócratas, mientras que Harris necesita atraer a los votantes independientes por un margen lo suficientemente significativo como para superar el debilitamiento del muro Demócrata del Condado Clark.
En el cerca de 1 millón de votos incluidos en el lote inicial de resultados, Trump mantuvo una ventaja de casi 4 puntos porcentuales sobre Harris, similar a la ventaja de participación que tuvieron los Republicanos registrados sobre los Demócratas registrados en esas mismas votaciones. Esto indica que, hasta ahora, los no partidistas se han dividido de manera uniforme entre los dos candidatos.
En un intento para ganar votos no partidistas, la campaña de Harris se basó en la fuerza organizativa tradicional de los Demócratas en Nevada: La estrategia Reid de combinar activistas sindicales, funcionarios del partido estatal, organizadores de campañas y grupos de interés cuyo impresionante trabajo de campo ha dejado al estado en manos de los Demócratas en el pasado. Para lograr dicho efecto, el poderoso Sindicato de Trabajadores Culinarios Local 226 ha tocado más de 900,000 puertas en este ciclo.
Mientras tanto, Trump apostó por la insatisfacción en temas económicos en Nevada, que tiene la tasa de desempleo más alta del país y por ganar terreno entre los votantes de color — en particular entre los hombres latinos.
Aunque la elección aún está demasiado reñida para declarar un ganador en Nevada, el estado no terminó en ser significativamente relevante en el camino de ninguno de los candidatos para alcanzar los 270 votos electorales.
Sin embargo, en el Senado estadounidense, Nevada determinará el tamaño de la mayoría Republicana. Tras haber ganado escaños Demócratas en Ohio y Virginia Occidental, los Republicanos ahora tendrán el control de la cámara alta.
Las contiendas en cinco estados clave — incluyendo Nevada — aún están demasiado reñidas como para predecir un ganador. El Republicano Sam Brown tiene una ventaja de menos de medio punto porcentual — lo que significa que Rosen supera a Harris.
Projections indicate that Democrats will not gain the coveted two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature that would allow them to easily override Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo's vetoes.
As of Tuesday evening, two Senate races and nine Assembly races are still in play, while The Nevada Independent has called a winner in 19 state Senate races and 33 Assembly races. With Republicans projected to win 15 seats in the Assembly, Democrats in the chamber are expected to lose their supermajority status.
However, there’s still a path for Democrats to gain a supermajority in the state Senate. If they can win those two yet-to-be-called races, the Democratic Party will hold a supermajority in the state Senate.
Leadership could also be in for a shakeup — two of the races that are too close to call include districts represented by Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager (D-Las Vegas) and Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas).
Democrats, who already hold a 28-seat supermajority in the 42-member Assembly, are one seat shy of the 14 seats needed for a two-thirds supermajority in the 21-member state Senate.
With the majority unable to override his vetoes, Lombardo has touted himself as a one-man roadblock to the Democratic majority’s policy priorities. In 2023, he set a record for the most vetoes issued in a single legislative session, rejecting 75 of the 611 bills passed by the Legislature.
Among the bills Lombardo scuttled that Democrats have highlighted this election cycle are a raft of housing bills that would have added new tenant protections and overhauled the state’s summary eviction procedures, measures to lower the cost of prescription drugs and a measure that would have continued funding universal free school breakfasts and lunches at K-12 schools.
Democrats have already announced they plan to bring back versions of the vetoed bills in 2025.
Outside of the 2014 “red-wave” election and subsequent legislative session, Democrats have maintained control of both houses of the Legislature since 2009, fueled by the “Reid Machine” built by longtime U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). The party further bolstered its structural advantages in congressional and legislative races in 2021 through control of the redistricting process, which saw Democrats redraw state maps.
Republicans have had more luck winning the governor’s seat, however, and can play a formidable defense against Democratic legislative majorities from that perch. Lombardo and his allies have taken an active role in picking and boosting candidates — mostly moderate Republicans — who have campaigned on the goal of preventing one-party rule in the Legislature.
The result has been a competitive cycle, with Democrats and Republicans neck and neck in fundraising and cash on hand.
Eleven seats in the 21-member Senate are not up for election this cycle, leaving 52 legislative races that will determine Lombardo’s veto power.
Nine of the seats up for election in the Legislature (seven in the Assembly and two in the Senate) were already decided because there was no challenger from an opposing party; four of the Assembly seats and one Senate seat that are already decided will be held by Republicans.
Below, we break down the status of supermajorities in each chamber of the Legislature and the consequential legislative races that we’re watching.
STATE SENATE
Senate District 5 - Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) is leading Jennifer Atlas (D) by a wide margin
In the swing district covering portions of Henderson and Paradise, Buck is projected to defeat Atlas.
Senate District 6 - Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) and Jill Douglass are neck and neck
Cannizzaro is slightly ahead of Douglass in this Southern Nevada district, but it’s too close to call.
Senate District 11 - The election between Sen. Dallas Harris (D- Las Vegas) and Lori Rogich (R) is too close to call.
Rogich is leading Harris in the swing district located in the fast-growing area of the southwestern Las Vegas Valley, bounded by the 215 Beltway, Interstate 15 and Durango Drive.
Senate District 15 - Assemblywoman Angie Taylor (D-Reno) is projected to defeat Mike Ginsburg (R)
Taylor is far ahead of Ginsburg in the district covering southwestern Washoe County, which used to favor Republicans but shifted to have a significant Democratic voter registration advantage under the state’s 2021 redistricting process.
The seat is open after Sen. Heidi Seevers O'Gara (formerly Seevers Gansert) (R-Reno) announced last year that she would not run for re-election.
ASSEMBLY
Assembly District 4 - Lisa Cole (R) is projected to win against Ryan Hampton (D)
In the race for this open seat in northwest Las Vegas, currently held by a Republican, Cole is projected to defeat Hampton.
The seat is open after Assemblyman Richard McArthur, a Republican, launched an unsuccessful bid for state Senate. The seat has been Republican-held since 2020, but it is no stranger to tight races and has narrow voter registration margins between the two major parties.
Assembly District 5 — Assemblywoman Brittney Miller (D-Las Vegas) is locked in a tight battle with Kelly Quinn (R)
Miller is slightly ahead in the Southern Nevada district.
Assembly District 9 - Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager (D-Las Vegas) is only slightly ahead of Erica Neely (R)
Yeager has a slim lead in the usually reliably blue district in Southern Nevada.
Assembly District 12 - Nancy Roecker (R) is slightly ahead of Assemblyman Max Carter (D-Las Vegas)
The race is too close to call, but Roecker holds a slim lead against Carter.
Assembly District 16 - Assemblywoman Cecelia Gonzalez (D-Las Vegas) holds a slim lead against James Neville (R)
Gonzalez holds a slim lead in this Southern Nevada district.
Assembly District 21 — This race between Assemblywoman Elaine Marzola (D-Las Vegas) and April Arndt (R) is still too close to call.
Marzola is slightly ahead of Arndt, but the race is still too close to call.
Assembly District 25 - Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch (D-Reno) is projected to defeat Diana Sande (R)
La Rue Hatch is leading in the sprawling swing district, which extends from Bartley Ranch to Reno’s Northgate community and includes parts of the city’s old southwest and northwest neighborhoods and Caughlin Ranch communities.
Assembly District 29 - The race between Joe Dalia (D) and Annette Dawson Owens (R) is too close to call.
Dalia is leading by a narrow margin in the open, long-competitive, slightly Democrat-leaning district that cuts across large swaths of Henderson. The seat is open after five-term Democratic Assemblywoman Lesley Cohen announced she would not be running for re-election.
Assembly District 34 - Hanadi Nadeem (D) is slightly ahead of Brandon Davis (R)
Nadeem is narrowly ahead of Davis in the Summerlin-area Assembly District 34. Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod (D-Las Vegas) is vacating the seat to run for Clark County Commission.
Assembly District 35 - Rebecca Edgeworth (R) is projected to defeat Sharifa Wahab (D)
Edgeworth has the advantage in this Southern Nevada race. The seat is being vacated by Assemblywoman Michelle Gorelow (D-Las Vegas).
Assembly District 37 - This race between Assemblywoman Shea Backus (D-Las Vegas) and David Brog (R) is too close to call.
The race in Summerlin has Backus slightly ahead.
Assembly District 41 - The race between Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui (D-Las Vegas) and Rafael Arroyo (R) is too close to call
Jauregui is slightly ahead of Arroyo in Assembly District 41, which straddles St. Rose Parkway and includes parts of Henderson and unincorporated parts of Clark County.
Voters rejected a measure to remove the constitutional status of the elected Board of Regents, which oversees higher education in Nevada, and grant the Legislature the authority to “review, reform and improve the programs and operations” of the state’s public universities.
It comes after voters narrowly rejected a similar effort to remove the constitutional status of the elected Board of Regents in 2020.
Question 1 would have removed all references to the Board of Regents from the Nevada Constitution, but would not have affected other laws regarding the Board of Regents, such as its ability to govern and manage the Nevada System of Higher Education or the processes for electing board members.
Nevada is among 28 states with a single administrative board overseeing all higher education institutions within its borders, and is the only one among those that elects all members of that board through a general election.
Supporters of the measure — which easily passed in the 2021 and 2023 legislative sessions landing it on the 2024 ballot — said the measure would have helped provide more oversight for the Board of Regents.
Last year, when speaking in favor of the measure, Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas) said the Board of Regents has “virtually unparalleled power within state government to control and manage higher education spending without the same level of legislative oversight typically applied to other executive branch agencies.”
The measure was opposed by the members of the Board of Regents, who said it would not adequately address problems in Nevada’s higher education system. In recent years, the Board of Regents has been accused of misrepresenting reports to the Legislature and allowing the misuse of student tuition dollars.
Question 2
Voters approved Question 2, which would remove the terms “insane,” “deaf” and “dumb” from the Nevada Constitution and broaden the language so it applies to a wider range of people with disabilities.
Now that it passed,the term“insane” will be replaced with “persons with significant mental illness”; “blind” to “persons who are blind or visually impaired”; and “deaf and dumb” to “persons who are deaf or hard of hearing.”
Question 2 received little pushback from legislators, and received broad support from disability advocacy groups that said the measure would help advance the rights of people with disabilities.
Question 4
Voters approved Question 4, a measure to remove language from the state Constitution that allows for slavery or indentured servitude as criminal punishment. Nevada joins eight other states that have passed similar ballot measures.
The amended text will change the Constitution’s original language that prohibited involuntary servitude except “in the punishment for crimes, whereof the party shall have been duly convicted” to read “neither Slavery nor involuntary servitude shall ever be tolerated in this State.”
Other states’ constitutions have similar language, dubbed the “penal exception” to the 13th Amendment, which abolished slavery and involuntary servitude in the United States except as punishment for a crime. In the 19th century, Southern states took advantage of this loophole to allow authorities to incarcerate Black people for petty crimes, such as vagrancy, and force them to work.
Civil rights groups, such as the Las Vegas NAACP, said that it will help promote the rights of Black Americans and other people of color within Nevada. Assemblyman Howard Watts (D-Las Vegas) said during a legislative hearing last year that the passage of the measure would ensure that nobody will ever have to endure state-sanctioned slavery again, opening a “new chapter” in Nevada history.
“We have seen over the last year that the scars of slavery and racism still cause pain throughout this state and our country,” Watts said. “Changing this language is important to help us all heal and demonstrate our commitment to the concept of justice for all.”
Since 2018, several states and members of Congress have pushed to remove penal exception constitutional language, including several measures that were approved by voters in Colorado, Nebraska, Utah, Alabama, Oregon, Tennessee and Vermont.
Despite the change in language, prison work programs — some of which pay as little as 25 cents per hour — will continue.
Question 5
Voters passed Question 5, a measure to exempt Nevada’s sales tax on adult and child diapers, adding it to a list of other items that are exempt from the tax such as food and feminine hygiene products.
More specifically, the ballot measure will amend the state’s 1955 sales and use tax, which established sales tax on revenue from personal property, and which has a slew of exemptions, many obtained through recent ballot initiatives.
Now that itpassed,Nevada will join 19 states — ranging from Texas to California — in exempting diapers from the sales tax. The exemption would begin in 2025 and last through the end of 2050.
Question 5 has been backed by legislators and a variety of local organizations, including the nonprofit diaper bank Baby’s Bounty and Battle Born Progress, a progressive organization.
Last year, in a letter to the lawmakers, Baby Bounty’s Executive Director Kelly Maxwell called diapers a “fundamental need” for a child’s health and argued that the measure would help secure access for at-need families.
The state estimates that it will lose about $400 million in tax revenue over 25 years, according to the secretary of state’s ballot question summary.
Nevadans are going to bed on election night without knowing which presidential candidate won the state’s six electoral votes — though the state’s eventual result will not decide the presidency.
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is too close to call as of midnight on Election Day, with nearly 1.1 million votes reported. Currently, Trump holds a lead of 5 percentage points, with numerous Election Day votes and late-arriving mail ballots, including those dropped off today, yet to be tabulated.
Even though several news outlets declared Trump the winner of the presidency Tuesday evening, the results of Nevada’s presidential contest will determine whether he will sweep all seven battleground states, as he is expected to carry the remaining six. When Trump won in 2016, he carried all of this year’s battlegrounds, save for Nevada.
Meanwhile, Republicans have gained control of the U.S. Senate, but Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is locked in a tight battle against Republican Sam Brown, who is underperforming Trump so far, particularly in Washoe County.
That means the only undecided federal chamber is the U.S. House, where two of the three Democrat-held seats in Nevada remain too close to call, and Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) prevailed handily in the 4th District, which includes parts of Clark County and rural Nevada.
Colette Phair watches the election results come in during the Nevada Democratic Watch Party at Aria on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Photo by Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Since Harris first entered the race in July, polling between the two has remained neck and neck, with neither candidate able to establish a lead large enough to predict the winner. Both candidates invested significant time and resources into the state.
Trump changed the policy terrain in Las Vegas in June when he pledged to end taxation on tips; Harris followed with her own proposal to end taxes on tips and raise the minimum wage in Las Vegas in August. Trump personally appeared at roundtables and rallies to shore up support among Latino Americans and Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, while Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, made several visits to the state, and big-name surrogates including former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton were on hand during early voting to underscore its importance.
Both candidates had dueling stops Oct. 31 in Las Vegas and Reno, making their closing arguments to Nevada voters. Voters were inundated with ads from each campaign on every medium; the Harris campaign even lit up the Sphere.
Tuesday night’s results reinforce just how close the race is — in Nevada, at least.
Turnout currently stands at about 1.1 million. In 2020, Nevada saw record turnout of more than 1.4 million votes. With figures about mail ballots turned in on Election Day unavailable, turnout for this year is difficult to predict.
With the race too close to call, the winner will likely be decided based on mail ballots that trickle in after Election Day. Republicans unsuccessfully sued to block the counting of these mail ballots, which can be received until Saturday, as well as non-postmarked mail ballots that come in by 5 p.m. Friday.
In 2022, about 6 percent of Clark County and 3 percent of Washoe County votes were received after Election Day, though it is unclear how many votes are outstanding this year given that presidential elections tend to have much higher turnout.
Trump is attempting to be the first Republican to win a presidential race in Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004. Since then, Democrats have been able to win through building a significant enough firewall in Clark County, where 70 percent of voters live, to counteract Republican vote totals in swingy Washoe County and the ruby-red rural counties.
That formula has been threatened this cycle by a diminishing voter registration advantage. On Election Day 2020, Democrats had a voter registration advantage of about 5 percentage points; in 2024, it was down to 1 percent.
In Clark County, which President Joe Biden won by 9 percentage points, Democrats’ voter registration edge by Election Day was down to less than 7 percentage points.
But rather than representing Republican gains, the biggest change in voter registration dynamics has been an explosion in nonpartisan registration — bolstered by the state’s 2020 implementation of automatic voter registration.
Trump’s path to victory in the state is to ensure, as has occurred in past cycles, that Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats, while Harris needs to win independent voters by a significant enough margin to overcome the weakening of the Clark County Democratic firewall.
In the roughly 1 million votes included in the initial batch of results, Trump maintained a roughly 4 percentage point advantage over Harris — similar to the turnout lead held by registered Republicans over registered Democrats across those same votes. It indicates that nonpartisans have, so far, split evenly among the two candidates.
In trying to win nonpartisan voters, the Harris campaign relied on Democrats’ traditional organizing strength in Nevada — the Reid Machine mix of union canvassers, state party officials, campaign organizers and interest groups whose impressive ground game has delivered the state to Democrats in the past. To that effect, the mighty Culinary Workers’ Union Local 226 has knocked more than 900,000 doors this cycle.
Trump, meanwhile, has banked on economic dissatisfaction in a state that has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, and gains among voters of color — in particular, Latino men.
Both campaigns have spent enormous sums of money to get their message out to voters — about $122 million in total. Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans in the presidential race, between the Harris campaign itself and allied outside groups. Harris-aligned spending has totaled about $85 million, while Trump and his affiliates have thrown in nearly $36 million.
While the election is still too close to call in Nevada, the state did not end up mattering to either candidate’s path to 270 votes.
In the U.S. Senate, however, it will determine the size of the Republican majority. Having flipped Democratic seats in Ohio and West Virginia, Republicans will now have control of the upper chamber.
Races in five swing states — including Nevada — are still too close to call. Republican Sam Brown has a lead of less than half a percentage point — meaning Rosen is outrunning Harris.
Los nevadenses han votado abrumadoramente a favor de consagrar el derecho al aborto en la Constitución del estado, donde sería más difícil eliminar protecciones, mientras buscan reforzar aún más los derechos reproductivos desde la revocación de Roe v. Wade hace dos años.
La aprobación de la Pregunta 6, que puso a consideración de los votantes si la Constitución de Nevada debería incluir un derecho fundamental al aborto, significa que la Constitución será enmendada si la mayoría de los votantes también aprueba la iniciativa en 2026.
La pregunta no cambiaría el acceso al aborto en el estado, pero haría más difícil la anulación de las protecciones actuales (que permiten el aborto dentro las 24 semanas de embarazo). La ley actual puede ser anulada mediante un voto mayoritario de la población, pero si las protecciones están consagradas en la Constitución del estado, se necesitarían dos votos mayoritarios para que procediera un cambio.
El éxito de la pregunta es un triunfo rotundo para los defensores de los derechos reproductivos, que han promovido la inclusión de preguntas electorales relacionadas con el aborto en una serie de estados desde que la revocación de Roe significó que los derechos al aborto se decidirían estado por estado. Los votantes de otros nueve estados votaron el martes sobre preguntas electorales destinadas a reforzar el acceso al aborto.
La aprobación de la Pregunta 6 abre la posibilidad de que aparezcan dos preguntas relacionadas con el aborto en la boleta electoral de 2026. En la sesión legislativa 2023, legisladores Demócratas aprobaron una enmienda constitucional que contiene elementos similares a la pregunta electoral más amplia que los defensores buscaban establecer en la boleta electoral de este año. Si la Legislatura aprueba la enmienda durante la sesión del próximo año, también aparecerá en la boleta electoral de 2026.
Opositores han argumentado que la petición es innecesaria y engaña a los votantes porque el aborto ya es legal en el estado.
Nevadans overwhelmingly approved a ballot question to amend the state Constitution to require voter ID, moving the politically divisive practice one step closer to going into effect in the Silver State.
As the initial batch of election returns were released Tuesday evening, Question 7 far exceeded the 50 percent threshold matching limitedpolling that showed strong support for a voter ID requirement. Because the question seeks to amend the state Constitution, it must also receive support from a majority of voters in the 2026 general election.
The initiative would require all in-person voters in Nevada to present a valid photo identification — such as a driver’s license, passport, student ID card or concealed weapon permit — before voting. People voting by mail would have to include part of a personally identifiable number — such as their driver’s license or Social Security number — alongside their signature.
The question’s success represents a potentially significant change to Nevada’s elections and follows years of attempts by Republicans in Nevada to require voter ID. Legislative efforts to require voter ID date back to at least 2015, and a bill pushed by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo last year to require voter ID stalled in the Democrat-controlled Legislature.
Democrats have argued that a voter ID is unnecessary — given that ID is required to register to vote — and could disenfranchise voters who do not have a valid form of ID, though the question does allow people to use non-photo ID when voting by mail. Meanwhile, Republicans have said voter ID is a common sense measure to build trust and secure elections, even though voter impersonation is essentially nonexistent in the U.S.
Nevada is one of 14 states to not require a form of identification while voting, and instead relies on voters’ signatures to verify their identity. Nine states have enacted strict photo ID laws for voting, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
This is the second time that Repair the Vote — a group led by former Clark County GOP Chair David Gibbs — has tried to place a voter ID question on the Nevada ballot, after its 2022 effort failed to pass legal scrutiny.
This effort began after the group filed a petition with state election officials. Soon after, a group of well-known Democrat-linked attorneys sued to block the question on the grounds that its description of effect (a 200-word summary of the measure included on signature forms) failed to outline its full implications. They also argued that the measure would require a funding source without providing one, and that it was similar to an unconstitutional poll tax because most of the identification options require some kind of payment.
A Carson City judge dismissed the lawsuit two months later — saying “probably time for voters of the state of Nevada to decide if they want this or not” — and the state Supreme Court upheld that ruling in April, determining that questions regarding a poll tax should not be addressed before the election.
The initiative qualified for the ballot in July after election officials verified 131,590 signatures, and it passed the threshold of signatures needed from each of the state’s four congressional districts (25,591).
Supporters of the effort have had a significant financial advantage.
Las Vegas Sands, whose largest shareholder is GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson, poured more than $1 million into the effort, and Repair the Vote raised $340,000 in the first nine months of this year.
Lombardo is also co-chairing a group called the Nevada Voter ID Coalition that raised $18,000 from July through September. Meanwhile, the PAC opposing the initiative — the Nevada Voter Freedom Alliance — raised just $500 during that same period.
Nevadans have overwhelmingly voted to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s Constitution, where they would be harder to undo, as they seek to further shore up reproductive rights since the fall of Roe v. Wade two years ago.
The approval of Question 6, which asked voters whether the Nevada Constitution should include a fundamental right to abortion, means that the Constitution will be amended if a majority of voters also approve it in 2026.
The question would not change abortion access in the state, but it would make it harder for existing protections — allowing abortion up through 24 weeks into a pregnancy — to be overturned. The current law can be overturned by a one-time majority vote of the people, but if the protections are enshrined in the state Constitution, it would take two majority votes for a change to occur.
The question’s success is a resounding victory for reproductive rights advocates, who have pursued abortion-related ballot questions in a slew of states since the overturning of Roe meant that abortion rights would be decided on a state-by-state basis. Voters in nine other states voted Tuesday on ballot questions aimed at bolstering abortion access.
The initiative in Nevada kicked off last September when a group called Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom filed a broader petition that sought to establish a constitutional right to “reproductive freedom,” which also would have protected the right procedures such as vasectomies as well as infertility and prenatal care.
However, a Carson City judge struck down the petition in November after a lawsuit argued the question was too broad and carried an unfunded mandate, preventing supporters from gathering signatures. Although the Nevada Supreme Court reversed this decision months later, Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom pivoted to a narrower question that only focused on protecting the right to an abortion.
This effort also faced a legal challenge, but the question received approval from a Carson City judge and the Nevada Supreme Court.
The passage of the question opens the possibility of two abortion-related ballot questions appearing on the 2026 ballot. In the 2023 legislative session, Democratic lawmakers passed a constitutional amendment that mirrors the broader ballot question that advocates pushed to appear on this year’s ballot. If the Legislature passes the amendment during next year’s session, it will also appear on the 2026 ballot.
The measure officially qualified for the November ballot after election officials verified more than 127,000 signatures gathered by petition supporters, well more than the roughly 102,000 needed to qualify for the ballot.
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom raised more than $11 million through the end of September, much of which came from so-called “dark money” groups, which are not required to disclose their donors under federal tax law. The group has spent more than $7 million in television ads this cycle, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
The left-leaning dark money groups that contributed to the effort include the Advocacy Action Fund ($2 million), Nevada Alliance ($1 million), Open Society Action Fund ($1 million) and the Tides Foundation ($837,000). Many of these groups have given money to support abortion-related ballot questions, which are seen as a potential way to drive up Democratic turnout, particularly in states where abortion is not already protected.
The effort also received $1.15 million from Think Big America, a nonprofit tied to Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), who is widely considered a future presidential candidate. Director Steven Spielberg also donated $50,000 to Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom.
Opponents have argued that the petition is unnecessary and misleads voters because abortion is already legal in the state. Guardians of the Young, a PAC opposing the ballot initiative, was registered in August but has not reported any money raised.
Durante la noche de las elecciones y el resto de la semana, The Nevada Independent utilizará esta página para hacer un seguimiento de resultados y declarar a quien se proyecte como persona ganadora de la elección presidencial, representación de Nevada en el Congreso, y contiendas clave en la Legislatura estatal. También informaremos resultados de las preguntas de la boleta electoral.
Contiendas para presidencia, Senado y 2 carreras para Cámara de Representantes, demasiado reñidas para proyectar resultados
Después de que se publicaron los resultados iniciales de Nevada de 1 millón de votos a las 10 de la noche del martes, las contiendas por las principales elecciones federales estaban demasiado reñidas como para proyectar resultados.
Hasta las 11 p. m., el Expresidente Donald Trump tenía una ventaja de más de 4 puntos porcentuales sobre la Vicepresidenta Kamala Harris. En el Condado Clark, él seguía con cerca de 13,000 votos, mientras que el Condado Washoe estaba empatado y los condados rurales, de mayoría Republicana, le dieron a Trump una ventaja inicial. (Pulse aquí para ver los resultados más actualizados).
El lote inicial de resultados incluyó votos anticipados en persona y boletas por correo recibidas antes del Día de las elecciones. Los Republicanos registrados tuvieron una ventaja de participación de casi 4 puntos porcentuales sobre los Demócratas registrados, lo que indica que los no partidistas, que constituyen una parte considerable del electorado, se estaban dividiendo de manera bastante uniforme entre los candidatos presidenciales.
Hay muchas boletas pendientes por correo y en persona en el Día de las Elecciones en el Condado Clark, lo que debería ayudar a los Demócratas debido a la ventaja de registro que tienen allí.
En la contienda por el Senado de los EE.UU. el Republicano Sam Brown tenía una ventaja minúscula frente a la Senadora Demócrata por Nevada Jacky Rosen, aunque él iba siguiendo en el Condado Washoe. Tanto en porcentaje como en total de votos, Brown está teniendo un desempeño inferior al de Trump en todo el estado.
En la Cámara de Representantes, el Distrito Congresional 3, como es habitual, es el más reñido: La Congresista Demócrata por Nevada Susie Lee tiene una ventaja de casi 1.5 puntos porcentuales sobre su rival Republicano Drew Johnson. Aunque la contienda aún está demasiado reñida para proyectar resultados, las papeletas de votación por correo entregadas el Día de las Elecciones en el Condado Clark, que se espera que se inclinen por los Demócratas, no se contabilizarán hasta el miércoles.
En cuanto al Distrito Congresional 1, la Congresista Demócrata por Nevada Dina Titus ha logrado una ventaja de 5.5 puntos porcentuales sobre el Republicano Mark Robertson. Titus, que ocupa este escaño desde 2012, venció a Robertson en 2022 por un margen de 5.6 puntos porcentuales.
Horsford gana
El Congresista Demócrata por Nevada Steven Horsford ganó un cuarto mandato consecutivo para representar al Distrito Congresional 4 — y su quinto mandato en total.
Horsford, quien fue el primer representante de ese distrito cuando se creó para las elecciones de 2012 y luego perdió su escaño durante las victorias Republicanas en 2014, regresó a la política en 2018 y ha ocupado el cargo desde entonces. Después de haber sido presidente del Caucus Afroamericano del Congreso durante los últimos dos años, aumentó su perfil nacional, amplificando su poder de recaudación de fondos y haciendo que los Republicanos dudaran en invertir dinero en la contienda.
Eso contribuyó a su importante ventaja financiera sobre su oponente, el Exalcalde de North Las Vegas, John Lee, en el distrito, que abarca North Las Vegas, una zona predominantemente Demócrata, y el norte del Condado Clark, así como gran parte del centro rural de Nevada.
Horsford fue recientemente reelegido para el poderoso Comité de Medios y Recursos, el panel de la Cámara que redacta la política fiscal y, por lo tanto, será el campo de batalla clave donde se desarrollarán los debates sobre los recortes impositivos de Trump que están a punto de expirar.
Si los Demócratas ganan la Cámara, su puesto en el comité está a salvo — si pierden, los márgenes determinarán si mantiene su cargo o no, aunque es probable que jubilaciones hagan que su puesto esté a salvo de grandes ganancias Republicanas.
El control de la Cámara aún está por determinarse y varios distritos aún están contabilizando votos.
Pierde la Pregunta 3
Los votantes de Nevada rechazaron el cambio propuesto más significativo al sistema electoral del estado desde que se implementaron las boletas de voto generalizado por correo en 2020.
Después de la publicación de resultados de la votación anticipada y de las papeletas de votación por correo recibidas antes del Día de las Elecciones, la Pregunta 3, que proponía implementar elecciones primarias abiertas y votación por orden de preferencia, estaba atrás por un margen sustancial.
Solo dos estados, Maine y Alaska, tienen votación por orden de preferencia generalizada.
Aunque la medida perdió este año, se aprobó en 2022 por un estrecho margen de 6 puntos porcentuales.
El fracaso de la propuesta tuvo lugar en medio de una gran oposición de los principales Demócratas y Republicanos del estado.
Se aprueba la Pregunta 6
Los nevadenses han dado el primer paso para consagrar el derecho al aborto en la Constitución del estado después de aprobar abrumadoramente la Pregunta 6 en la boleta electoral.
Durante más de un año, defensores han buscado reforzar aún más los derechos al aborto en Nevada como parte de un esfuerzo nacional para garantizar el acceso al aborto a través de preguntas electorales desde que la Corte Suprema de Estados Unidos revocó Roe v. Wade en 2022.
Si los votantes aprueban la pregunta nuevamente en 2026, la Constitución del estado se reescribirá para incluir que los nevadenses tienen un derecho fundamental al aborto.
El aborto ya es legal dentro de las 24 semanas de embarazo en Nevada, y eso no cambiará con esta propuesta electoral. Sin embargo, hará más difícil su revocación, ya que la ley actual se puede modificar con un voto mayoritario de la población, mientras que serán necesarias dos mayorías para eliminar el derecho de la Constitución del estado.
Se aprueba la Pregunta 7
Nevada está un paso más cerca de requerir identificación de votante después de que los electores aprobaron abrumadoramente la Pregunta 7 de la boleta.
La iniciativa ahora se dirige a las elecciones de 2026, cuando otro voto afirmativo consagrará un requisito de identificación de votantes en la Constitución del estado.
La iniciativa requerirá que, antes de votar, todos los electores que acudan a votar en persona en Nevada presenten una identificación válida con fotografía — una licencia de conducir, pasaporte, tarjeta de identificación estudiantil o un permiso para portar armas ocultas. Quienes voten por correo tendrán que incluir parte de un número de identificación personal — como su licencia de conducir o su número de Seguro Social — junto con su firma.
El éxito de la medida no es una sorpresa, ya que encuestas limitadas mostraron un gran apoyo al requisito de una identificación de votante. Los Republicanos han estado tratando de establecer la identificación de votantes en el estado desde al menos el 2015, pero han sido bloqueadas por los Demócratas.
Amodei gana
El Congresista Republicano por Nevada Mark Amodei ganó un séptimo mandato completo en la Cámara de Representantes de los EE.UU. en el Distrito Electoral 2, derrotando al candidato independiente Greg Kidd.
Amodei ha representado a dicho distrito con sede en el norte de Nevada desde 2011. Si completa su mandato, él será el Representante del distrito con más años de servicio, superando a la Excongresista Republicana por Nevada Barbara Vucanovich.
Amodei, originario de Carson City, nunca había perdido una elección por un margen más cercano a 15 puntos porcentuales. Si bien aún faltan algunos votos, el margen de Amodei parece similar a en ciclos electorales anteriores.
Kidd invirtió más de $2 millones de dólares de su propio dinero en su campaña y gastó mucho más en los medios que Amodei. Pero el actual candidato, que ha estado involucrado en la política del norte de Nevada desde 1996 y nunca ha perdido una campaña, triunfó de todos modos.
Welcome to The Nevada Independent’s election results live blog!
During election night and the rest of the week, The Indy will be using this page to track results and declare winners in Nevada’s presidential and congressional races, and the key contests in the state Legislature. We’ll also be bringing you results for important ballot questions.
For details on the ballot counting timeline, read our explainer here.
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Races for president, Senate, 2 House races too close to call
After the initial 1 million Nevada results were released in the 10 o’clock hour on Tuesday evening, races for key federal races were too close to call. (See below for the House races we have called).
As of about 11 p.m., former President Donald Trump had a lead of more than 4 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. He trailed by about 13,000 votes in Clark County, while swingy Washoe County was a dead heat and the deep-red rural counties gave Trump an initial lead. (For the most up-to-date results, click here.)
The initial batch of results included in-person early votes and mail ballots received before Election Day. Registered Republicans had a roughly 4 percentage point turnout advantage over registered Democrats, indicating that nonpartisans — who make up a sizable portion of the electorate — were splitting pretty evenly among the presidential candidates.
There are many outstanding mail and in-person Election Day ballots in Clark County, which should help Democrats because of their registration advantage there.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Sam Brown held a miniscule advantage over Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), though he was trailing in bellwether Washoe County. By both percent and raw vote totals, he is underperforming Trump across the state.
In the House, Congressional District 3 — as is custom — is the closest race: Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) has a lead of about 1.5 percentage points over Republican challenger Drew Johnson. While the race is still too close to call, mail ballots dropped off on Election Day in Clark County — which are expected to break toward Democrats — will not be tabulated until tomorrow.
In Congressional District 1, meanwhile, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) has opened up a 5.5 percentage point lead over Republican Mark Robertson. Titus, who has held this seat since 2012, beat Robertson in 2022 by a margin of 5.6 percentage points.
Horsford wins
Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) has won a fourth consecutive term to represent Congressional District 4 — and his fifth term overall.
Horsford, who was the 4th District’s first representative when it was created ahead of the 2012 election and then lost his seat in the 2014 red wave, made a political comeback in 2018 and has held the seat ever since. Having served as the chairman of the powerful Congressional Black Caucus for the past two years, he grew his national profile, amplifying his fundraising power and making Republicans hesitant to spend any money on the race.
That contributed to his significant financial advantage over his opponent, former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, in the district, which encompasses Democrat-heavy North Las Vegas and northern Clark County, as well as much of rural central Nevada.
In the general election, Horsford and allied Democratic groups outspent Lee — who received virtually no outside advertising support — by $4.5 million on the airwaves, per ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Horsford was recently reappointed to the powerful Ways & Means Committee, the House panel that writes tax policy and will be the critical battlefield for debates over the expiring Trump tax cuts. If Democrats win the House, his position on the committee is safe — if they lose, the margins will determine whether he keeps his perch or not, though retirements will likely make his position safe barring large Republican pickups.
Control of the House has yet to be determined, with several districts still tabulating votes. Question 3 fails
Nevada voters have rejected the most significant proposed change to the state’s election system since mail-in ballots were implemented in 2020.
After the release of results from early voting and mail ballots received before Election Day, Question 3, which proposed to implement open primaries and ranked-choice voting, was behind by a substantial margin
Only two states — Maine and Alaska — have widespread ranked-choice voting.
Though the measure failed this year, it passed in 2022 by a narrow 6 percentage points. The proposal’s failure came amid vehement opposition from the state’s top Democrats and Republicans.
Question 6 passes
Nevadans have taken the first step to enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution after overwhelmingly passing ballot Question 6.
For more than a year, advocates have sought to further shore up abortion rights in Nevada, part of a nationwide effort to bolster abortion access through ballot questions since the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.
If voters pass the question again in 2026, the state Constitution would be rewritten to include that Nevadans have a fundamental right to abortion.
Abortion is already legal through 24 weeks into a pregnancy in Nevada, and that would not change with this ballot question. However, it would make it harder to overturn, as existing law can be changed by a one-time majority vote of the people, while two majority votes would be necessary to remove the right from the state Constitution.
Question 7 passes
Nevada is one step closer to requiring voter ID after voters overwhelmingly passed ballot Question 7.
The measure now heads to the 2026 ballot, when another affirmative vote would enshrine a voter ID requirement in the state’s Constitution.
The initiative would require all in-person voters in Nevada to present a valid photo identification — such as a driver’s license, passport, student ID card or concealed weapon permit — before voting. People voting by mail would have to include part of a personally identifiable number — such as their driver’s license or Social Security number — alongside their signature.
The measure’s success is hardly a surprise, as limitedpolling showed strong support for a voter ID requirement. Republicans have been trying to enact voter ID in the state dating back to at least 2015, but have been stymied by Democrats.
Supporters of the ballot question significantly outraised opponents, and Democrats put few resources toward opposing the question, likely given the public’s overwhelming support.
Amodei wins
Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) won a seventh full term to the U.S. House in Congressional District 2, defeating self-funded Greg Kidd, who ran as a nonpartisan.
Amodei has represented the Northern Nevada-based district since 2011. If he finishes out his term, he will be the district’s longest-serving representative, overtaking former Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV).
The Carson City native had never lost an election by a margin closer than 15 percentage points. While some of the vote is still outstanding, Amodei’s margin looks to be similar to previous election cycles.
Kidd spent more than $2 million of his own money on the race and spent far more on the airwaves than Amodei. But the incumbent, who has been involved in Northern Nevada politics since 1996 and never lost a race, still won.
To soothe her jitters about the election, Connie Hayes plans to spend the day on a hike and commiserating with friends.
For the 67-year-old retired government employee, the stakes are incredibly high this election. She contends that nothing short of American democracy is on the line if former President Donald Trump is re-elected.
Yet, despite her fears and a presidential race that's neck and neck, Hayes said she believes that Democrats will be able to rally enough votes to catapult Vice President Kamala Harris to victory.
Many of her friends, she noted, are Republicans who chose not to vote for Trump, holding similar concerns about democracy.
“I think there may be enough clandestine blue people voting. That's my hope,” Hayes said.
Like Hayes, most of the other voters The Nevada Independent interviewed leading up to the election remained “cautiously optimistic” about Election Day and the country’s political climate. Most didn’t voice heightened concerns about potential political violence or widespread voter fraud — allegations of which, after the 2020 presidential election, were rejected by officials in Nevadaand nationally.
A late October AP-NORC poll, however, found that about 70 percent of Americans report feeling anxious or frustrated about the 2024 presidential campaign. Democrats reported more anxiety than Republicans about the race, while only about half of nonpartisans (who constitute a plurality of Nevada voters) expressed feelings of stress, according to the poll.
Dr. Shairi Turner, chief health officer at Crisis Text Line, a text-based mental health support platform, said she has seen an uptick in election-related anxiety. Currently, the platform is receiving about 100-200 conversations per day related to political anxiety, but she expects these numbers to skyrocket, similar to how they did in 2016 and 2020.
Turner said that these conversations range from general mistrust in government to concerns about the rolling back of the rights of transgender people and climate protections. Although Crisis Text Line doesn’t keep track of political affiliation, Turner said the groups that demonstrate the most political anxiety are those older than 65, and those who identify as male, followed by transgender and nonbinary users.
Turner was hesitant to pinpoint exact reasoning behind these trends, but offered general strategies on coping with political anxiety such as setting boundaries during discussions with loved ones or recognizing that it can be difficult to shift someone’s political opinion.
“I think people become overwhelmed when they're just letting the news bombard them, as opposed to being intentional and saying ‘right for the next half hour, I'm going to watch the news on this station, or I'm going to look for a particular article and get my information there,’” Turner said.
Kai Olvera, a 23-year-old health care worker who identifies as queer, said that they fear for their rights under another Trump administration. Last year, 17 states passed restrictions on medical care for transgender people during their legislative sessions, and Olvera is worried that transgender rights could be rolled back in Nevada if it tilts red.
“There’s this fear that I can't exist and go out in public with the policies and with things that have been going on in the past few years,” Olvera said.
However, at a time when other Republican-led states have been passing record numbers of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, last year, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo signed two bills enhancing protections for transgender and gender nonconforming people — a move that the Human Rights Campaign applauded.
Olvera, who has family members who are undocumented, fears for loved ones’ well-being under Trump, who has promised to conduct a mass deportation campaign if elected, potentially affecting Nevada’s roughly 150,000 undocumented people.
Despite those concerns, Olvera remains slightly optimistic.
“I'm really hoping that, because we have a new influx of new voters and people who just turned 18, that they are voting blue,” Olvera said.
Registro de votantes el mismo día hace más lentas las ya de por sí largas filas
Mucho después de las 7 p.m., una cantidad significativa de votantes por primera vez que todavía no registraban aun seguían llenando una sala de conferencias en el edificio Joe Crowley Student Union de la Universidad de Nevada, Reno (UNR), sede de un centro de votación en el campus.
La cantidad de registros de votantes el mismo día, un impulso importante hacia las 6,000 papeletas provisionales esperadas en el Condado Washoe este ciclo, es sustancialmente mayor a lo que funcionarios electorales habían planeado, dijo Jennifer de Jung, subdirectora del sitio.
Se trata de una función del registro de votantes el mismo día, un proceso implementado en Nevada en 2020 que permite a las personas registrarse para votar en las casillas y luego emitir inmediatamente un voto provisional. Esos votos se contabilizan después de que funcionarios verifican la información de registro de una persona y que no haya votado dos veces en la misma elección.
De Jung dijo que el proceso para cada votante no registrado demora entre cinco y diez minutos, si todo sale bien. En 2020, en todo el estado, casi 10,000 nuevos votantes que utilizaron el proceso del mismo día se registraron como Demócratas, casi 12,000 se registraron como Republicanos y más de 8,000 se registraron como no partidistas o con un partido minoritario.
Mya Ballinger, la penúltima persona de la fila, estaba entre los votantes primerizos que también debían registrarse el Día de las Elecciones. Ella decidió votar ante la insistencia de su compañera de habitación y las dos alcanzaron a entrar en la fila con solo cinco minutos de margen antes de que cerraran las puertas.
“Creo que definitivamente vale la pena”, dijo Ballinger. “Mi opinión definitivamente importa”.
Funcionarios electorales calculan que todos los electores habrán emitido sus votos cerca de las 9 p.m.
El registrador adjunto de votantes del Condado Washoe, Andrew McDonald, dijo el martes por la noche que los registros en la UNR representan muchas de las papeletas provisionales (o registros del mismo día) que el condado procesará en los próximos días, y calificó la cifra de 4,000 presentadas el Día de las Elecciones como "bastante alta" para el Condado Washoe.
"Si recuerdas que hacías la tarea en la universidad, era de último momento", dijo McDonald. "Así que [la UNR] hace registros de último momento el mismo día ... y tienen derecho a hacerlo, pero eso crea largas filas".
— Amy Alonzo y Tabitha Mueller, 8 p.m., Reno
Las casillas ya están cerradas pero resultados están a horas de distancia
Los sitios de votación ya han cerrado en Nevada, pero los resultados no estarán disponibles durante horas debido a las largas filas.
Los resultados no se pueden publicar hasta que haya votado la última persona en la fila de un centro de votación. En el Condado rural Nye, la fila era de poco menos de tres horas al momento en que cerraron las urnas. Los tiempos de espera también fueron de varias horas en los condados Clark y Washoe.
Quienes estén en la fila a las 7 p.m. podrán votar.
— Eric Neugeboren, 7 p.m. Las Vegas
Secretaría del estado dice que falta de firmas consistentes de votantes jóvenes contribuye a necesidad de verificación
Hasta el momento, casi 14,000 votos por correo en Nevada requieren verificación de firma, lo que, según la oficina del secretario del estado, está concentrado entre los votantes más jóvenes, que pueden no tener una firma uniforme.
Los votantes deben firmar sus boletas por correo antes de entregarlas; esas firmas después se cotejan con la firma del votante en otros documentos, como su registro de votante, por ejemplo, para garantizar que no haya discrepancias.
Pero es posible que los jóvenes tengan menos probabilidades de tener una firma tradicional o distintiva debido a la cantidad de documentos que ahora se firman vía internet.
Cuando hay una discrepancia, la boleta se debe corregir. Para eso, los votantes pueden firmar una declaración jurada física o digital en la que afirmen que la papeleta en cuestión es suya.
El Secretario del Estado Cisco Aguilar dijo a The New York Times que la edad baja promedio en las boletas que necesitan una verificación de firma se debe “al hecho de que los jóvenes no tienen firmas en estos días. Y cuando se registraron para votar a través del proceso de registro automático de votantes, firmaron de manera digital en el DMV [Departamento de Vehículos Motorizados] y eso se convirtió en la firma de su licencia”.
Los votantes cuya boleta requiera una firma serán contactados por su condado o quizá por un partido político. La oficina del secretario del estado alienta a los votantes a verificar que su información de contacto esté actualizada y a utilizar el servicioBallotTrax del estado para verificar el estatus de su boleta.
Si bien la cifra actual —13,906 papeletas que necesitan una verificación — no incluye las boletas enviadas por correo que llegaron el 3 de noviembre o que se entregaron el Día de las Elecciones, el problema actualmente se concentra más entre los no partidistas. Hay 6,383 papeletas de votantes que no están registrados con un partido mayor, 4,026 de Demócratas registrados y 3,497 de Republicanos registrados que necesitan una verificación de firma.
El Sindicato de Trabajadores Culinarios Local 226, una parte clave de la estrategia Demócrata en Nevada, está llevando a cabo un gran programa de verificación, como en años anteriores.
— Gabby Birenbaum, 1:35 p.m., Washington D.C.
Sitio de votación del Estadio Allegiant atrae a votantes curiosos y a la Senadora Jacky Rosen
Jarrett Clark y Anthony Pecora, quienes viven en Las Vegas, han ido a votar juntos el Día de las Elecciones todos los años desde hace más de una década. Ellos dicen que es una tradición.
Clark y Pecora pensaron que el Estadio Allegiant sería un lugar único en 2024 en lugar de una escuela o un centro comunitario.
“Hemos venido a conciertos, pero nunca a un partido de fútbol”, dijo Clark. “Es la primera vez que abren el estadio como centro de votación”.
La pareja dijo que entraron directamente y emitieron su voto. El Departamento de Elecciones del Condado Clark tenía 25 puestos de registro y 25 casillas.
La pareja también recibió una calcomanía negra y plateada con el tema del Estadio Allegiant y con el mensaje “Yo voté”. También se les otorgó la tradicional calcomanía de votación del Condado Clark, y ambos se tomaron una foto con dos de las animadoras Raiderettes del equipo Las Vegas Raiders.
Más de 100 votantes estaban en fila antes de que abrieran las urnas. Sin embargo, el tiempo de espera pasó rápidamente. En un momento dado, equipos de medios de comunicación locales, nacionales e internacionales asignados al Estadio Allegiant superaron en número a los votantes.
La Senadora Demócrata por Nevada Jacky Rosen llegó para emitir su voto en la contienda contra el Republicano Sam Brown poco después de las 9 a.m. acompañada de integrantes de sindicatos locales y votantes por primera vez. En declaraciones posteriores a los medios, Rosen animó a los nevadenses a votar.
Josh Arrizazia, quien hace poco se mudó a Las Vegas desde el sur de California, dijo que también estaba entusiasmado por usar el Estadio Allegiant como lugar de votación. Cuando se le preguntó acerca de su elección para la presidencia, Arrizazia dijo que estaba tendiendo hacia un lado después de escuchar un podcast con Joe Rogan, quien ha apoyado al Expresidente Donald Trump.
Sin embargo, Arrizazia cambió de opinión después de ver una entrevista con el Senador Independiente por Vermont Bernie Sanders, quien ha respaldado a la Vicepresidenta Kamala Harris.
“Respeto las opiniones de Bernie. Eso me hizo cambiar de opinión”, dijo Arrizazia.
— Howard Stutz, 11:20 a.m., Las Vegas
La Senadora Demócrata por Nevada Jacky Rosen responde preguntas de los periodistas después de que ella emitió su voto en el sitio de votación del Estadio Allegiant el 5 de noviembre de 2024. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Republicanos lideran participación en primeras horas de la elección de Nevada, pero por márgenes menores que en otros años
En el primer reporte estatal acerca de la participación en persona el 5 de noviembre, los Demócratas representaron casi el 30 por ciento de los casi 57,000 votos emitidos hasta las 10 a.m. Los Republicanos representaron cerca del 37 por ciento.
Esto supone una mejora para los Demócratas en comparación con 2020 y 2022. En 2020, los Demócratas registrados representaron casi el 22 por ciento de los votos presenciales el Día de las Elecciones a las 10 a. m. Los republicanos representaron casi el 40 por ciento del recuento inicial. Los Republicanos registrados llegaron al Día de las Elecciones con una ventaja de más de 40,000 votos sobre los Demócratas registrados, lo que significa que podrían estar tomando parte de sus votos totales anteriores del Día de las Elecciones.
En el Condado Clark, los Demócratas tenían una ligera ventaja sobre los Republicanos después de ir perdiendo por dos dígitos al mismo tiempo en 2020. Durante todo el Día de las Elecciones de 2022, los Republicanos también tuvieron una ventaja de 15 puntos porcentuales sobre los Demócratas.
En el Condado Washoe, los Republicanos tenían una ventaja de 10 puntos porcentuales sobre los Demócratas en las primeras tres horas de votación en persona el Día de las Elecciones. Eso es cerca de la mitad de la ventaja del Partido Republicano en las primeras tres horas de votación el Día de las Elecciones en 2020 y la ventaja de los Republicanos de Washoe durante todo el Día de las Elecciones en 2022.
En los condados rurales de Nevada, los Demócratas registrados representaron cerca del 12 por ciento de los votantes en persona el Día de las Elecciones. Los Republicanos registrados representaron cerca del 56 por ciento y tuvieron una ventaja de votos sin procesar de casi 3,600.
Durante el Día de las Elecciones de 2022, los Republicanos registrados representaron casi dos tercios de los votos rurales emitidos en persona, mientras que los Demócratas registrados representaron cerca del 11 por ciento.
— Eric Neugeboren, 11:15 a.m.
Largas filas en las primeras horas de votación
Los tiempos de espera en el centro comercial Galleria at Sunset fueron de casi una hora. La fila se hizo más larga a medida que avanzaba la mañana y se alargó por la puerta antes de las 10 a.m.
Emily Zamora, directora ejecutiva de Silver State Voices, un grupo de participación cívica, dijo en una llamada telefónica cerca de las 9 a.m. que no ha habido “nada extraordinario” en términos de reportes de acoso contra trabajadores electorales.
“Pienso que hay muchos observadores que están monitoreando las elecciones”, dijo Zamora. “Creo que hay algunas personas buenas con buenas intenciones y pienso que hay otras personas que podrían estar ahí sin las mejores intenciones”.
— Rocío Hernández, 10:15 a.m., Henderson
Votantes hacen fila en el centro comercial Galleria at Sunset en Henderson el Día de la Elección, el 5 de noviembre de 2024. (Rocio Hernandez/The Nevada Independent)
El martes por la mañana, las filas eran más cortas en la Preparatoria Reno, donde el candidato Republicano para representar a Nevada en el Senado de los EE.UU., Sam Brown, emitió su voto. Pero en el sur de Reno, una fila llegaba hasta la puerta de la biblioteca y los tiempos de espera rondaban los 40 minutos.
En todo el Condado Washoe, los tiempos de espera rondan la media hora, con algunas excepciones. Campañas y candidatos ondeaban letreros y saludaban a los votantes.
Pulse aquí para consultar los tiempos de espera en los sitios de votación en el Condado Washoe.
— Tabitha Mueller, 10 a.m., Reno
El candidato Republicano para representar a Nevada en el Senado de los EE.UU., Sam Brown, saluda a un trabajador electoral después de votar en la Preparatoria Reno el Día de la Elección en Reno el 5 de noviembre de 2024. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent)
Se abren las casillas
Este Día de la Elección los centros de votación se abrieron a las 7 a.m. en todo el estado, lo que permitió que quienes no participaron durante la votación anticipada emitieran su boleta.
Hasta este lunes por la mañana casi 1.1 millones de nevadenses han emitido su voto en la elección general, ya sea por correo o en persona, lo que elevó la participación electoral total al 53 por ciento.
Hasta ahora, casi el 50 por ciento de quienes ya han emitido su voto lo han hecho por correo, incluyendo cerca del 14 por ciento de Demócratas y casi el 23 por ciento de Republicanos.
Entre quienes ya votaron, casi el 34 por ciento fueron Demócratas y casi el 38 por ciento, Republicanos. Otras afiliaciones partidistas representaron cerca del 28 por ciento de la participación total.
Para acelerar el proceso de informe de resultados, el secretario del estado emitió nuevas directrices antes de las elecciones primarias de junio, lo que permite a los condados empezar el conteo de papeletas a partir de las 8 a.m. el Día de la Elección. Durante comicios anteriores, los condados solo podían empezar a contar las boletas después del cierre de las urnas.
Aunque el conteo empieza el martes por la mañana, los resultados no oficiales no comenzarán a publicarse hasta que todas las urnas estén cerradas y el último votante en la fila en cualquier parte del estado haya emitido su papeleta.
Para votar el Día de las Elección, los electores deben estar en la fila antes de las 7 p.m. de hoy. Las boletas de votación por correo deben tener matasellos con fecha anterior al 5 de noviembre.
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition:The download on what The Nevada Independent’s staff are watching this Election Day. Plus, links you may want to save and reference, a last-minute poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Nevada, some information about watch parties and the ever-important reminder from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: “DON'T PANIC.” We’ll get results when we get them.
A quick reminder: Click here to check your registration status. Nevadans can register on the same day they vote in person during early voting or on Election Day. Here's how to do that.
Click this link to manage your newsletter subscriptions. This newsletter is published twice a week on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email your newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at tabitha@thenvindy.com.
By the Numbers:
0 days until Election Day
Approximately 12 hours until polls close, and election officials begin reporting results
TBD on when we’ll know the winner of Nevada’s presidential election
What we’re watching in Nevada
By By Tabitha Mueller, Gabby Brienbaum, Howard Stutz, Eric Neugeboren, Rocio Hernandez and Isabella Aldrete
On the first day of early voting, Nevadans described this year as the election of their lifetimes, pointing to the swing state’s toss-up status in the presidential race, a U.S. Senate race that could shape control of the upper chamber of Congress, a ballot question that could fundamentally change Nevada’s election system and races that could determine whether Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo can remain a one-man roadblock to the Democratic majority’s agenda in the Legislature.
Lower down on the ballot, the election is just as consequential. Washoe County’s lone commission race this cycle could oust the board’s most influential Democratic commissioner, and Clark County could see its first Republican elected to its commission since 2004 — an indication that the reliably blue county commission might be shifting.
This year’s election also promises insights into the partisan lean of the state’s growing share of nonpartisan voters.
Staff at The Nevada Independent explain the trends and races that we’re watching and what the results could say about Nevada’s electorate.
With more than 1.1 million ballots already cast, polls’ relevance has greatly diminished — but we’ll make an exception for the NYT/Siena poll, one of the highest-quality surveys we have. And somewhat counterintuitively to the early voting data, the poll finds Harris performing the best in Nevada among all swing states.
The crosstabs resemble a more typical Nevada presidential election. Trump is only at 35 percent support among Hispanic voters, with Harris ahead by 32 percentage points. Trump is up big with white voters, including college-educated whites (15 percentage points), despite other polls suggesting Harris is improving on Biden’s margins with that group. Trump is winning men by 16 percentage points; Harris is up 22 with women. And Harris is up 9 with nonpartisans — the real deciders.
Geographically, the poll has Harris up 8 percentage points in Clark County — Biden won by 9 — Trump up 22 percentage points in the rurals, and Washoe County tied.
High rural turnout — and margin for Trump — could disrupt the polling breakdown. Registered Republicans are up 38 percentage points in turnout in the rurals as of Monday, so Harris would need serious support among nonpartisans there to keep the scenario that the NYT describes alive.
— Gabby Birenbaum
The Lightning Round
A small glitch ahead of Election Day — Washoe County’s Deputy Registrar of Voters Andrew McDonald told the Reno Gazette-Journal that there’s a small glitch delaying transfers of the data with the county’s mail-in ballot counts to the state's new Voter Registration and Election Management System, but “things are running smoothly.” McDonald said the county is caught up on mail-in and early voting numbers, but said there’s occasionally a "file transmission error" that can lead to delays.
Though the data is delayed, McDonald said it’s still available in the county system.
“We have it, and all we do is restart that transmission to get those numbers up to the state,” McDonald said.
— Tabitha Mueller
Election night watch parties
5 p.m.: The Nevada GOP is hosting an official watch night party at the Ahern Hotel in Las Vegas.
5:30 p.m.: Republican U.S. Senate Candidate Sam Brown is holding an election watch party at Red Rock Casino.
6:30 - 11 p.m.: Congressional District 2 hopeful Greg Kidd is hosting an election night watch party at the Grand Sierra Resort’s Kingpin Lounge.
7:30 p.m.: The Nevada Democrats are hosting an election night party with the Democratic federal delegation, state legislators and other elected Democratic officials at ARIA Resort & Casino.
8 p.m.: Las Vegas mayoral candidate Shelley Berkley will hold an election watch party at the Plaza Hotel and Casino in the Sand Dollar Lounge.
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
The Nevada Independent is using this live blog to monitor key developments while polls remain open on Election Day. Check back for updates.
At Democratic watch party, attendees nervous, subdued
Toni Washington expressed nervousness about Vice President Kamala Harris' chances as she watched returns from other states at a Democratic victory party at the Aria casino on the Las Vegas Strip. The presidential race was a “little too close” for her right now, she said.
As a woman and a member of the LGBTQ+ community, the 59-year-old veteran feels that her rights may be rolled back if former President Donald Trump succeeds in his re-election bid. If Trump wins, Washington contends that the country could descend into “civil unrest.”
“I think that Trump has made it too easy for those individuals to speak and say whatever they want and think that their thoughts have no repercussions,” Washington said.
Other Democrats at the Aria were more optimistic about Harris’ chances. Spencer Ridenour, a 34-year-old bartender and member of Culinary Workers Union Local 226, said that he believes this election is reminiscent of the 2020 race and that Harris will soon make a comeback, especially when mail-in ballots are tabulated.
“I believe in Kamala. I believe in Tim Walz. I believe in Nevada,” Ridenour said.
– Bella Aldrete, 9:40 p.m., Las Vegas
Here’s what to expect when you’re expecting (Nevada results)
Though polls closed at 7 p.m., voters standing in line at that time will be allowed to vote as long as they remain in line. Nevada will begin posting Election Day results after the state’s last voter casts a ballot.
Once the last ballot is cast, initial vote totals should be released. These will include valid mail-in ballots received before Election Day and in-person early voting ballots.
The next set of results will be from in-person Election Day voting as counties tabulate and send that information to Nevada’s Secretary of State’s Office.
Nevada counties will likely not tabulate the numerous ballots that were received by mail or dropbox on Tuesday until Wednesday.
Washoe County Deputy Registrar of Voters Andrew McDonald estimated that there will be a large ballot drop from those in the coming days. He said the county has a goal of updating results hourly, but it takes time to verify the numbers, pull the report and upload it.
"It's going to be a long night for getting those results and it will continue on in the days ahead," McDonald said during a Tuesday press conference.
After receiving physical ballots, counties need to sort them, verify signatures, organize them by individual precincts, extract and scan verified ballots and tabulate them. A ballot with stray marks will go through an adjudication process, where a bipartisan committee reviews it to determine voter intent. When that intent is established, the vote can continue to the tabulation process.
During signature verification, physical ballots with a missing or mismatched signature will be challenged and held for curing. During the curing process, voters are asked to confirm their identity. Once that is done, the ballot continues in the tabulation process.
Counties begin contacting voters who need to confirm their signatures as soon as they become aware of it.
Nevada law outlines that counties have until Nov. 9 to accept mail-in ballots postmarked on or before Election Day, and voters have until Nov. 12 to cure their ballots.
Provisional ballots are counted after officials verify a person’s registration information and that they have not voted twice in the same election. The last day a voter can provide identification or proof of residence for their provisional ballot in Nevada is Nov. 8. That date is also the deadline for receiving and including mail ballots with indeterminate postmarks.
The various deadlines can delay unofficial calls by media and third-party data analysts for Nevada races until after the close of the signature curing period.
— Tabitha Mueller, 9:21 p.m. from Reno
Same-day registration slows down already long lines
Well after 7 p.m., an overwhelming number of unregistered first-time voters were still crowding a conference room at UNR’s Joe Crowley Student Union, home to a campus polling site.
The number of same-day voter registrations, a major driver toward the 6,000 provisional ballots expected in Washoe County this cycle, is substantially more than election officials had planned for, said Jennifer de Jung, the site’s assistant manager.
“A ton is an understatement,” she said.
It’s a function of same-day registration, a process implemented in Nevada in 2020 that allows people to register to vote at the polls and then immediately cast a provisional ballot. Provisional ballots are counted after officials verify a person’s registration information and that they have not voted twice in the same election.
Each unregistered voter takes five to 10 minutes to process, de Jung said — if nothing goes wrong. In 2020, across the state, nearly 10,000 new voters who used the same-day process registered as Democrats, while nearly 12,000 registered as Republicans and more than 8,000 registered as nonpartisan or with a minor party.
Mya Ballinger, the second-to-last person in line, was among the first-time voters who also needed to register on Election Day. She decided to vote at the urging of her roommate, and the two made it into line with just five minutes to spare before the doors closed.
Edward Calva, 20, was the last person in line. He ducked over to vote after getting out of class.
“I wasn’t expecting it to be this long,” he said of the wait.
Polling officials estimate all voters will have cast their ballots by about 9 p.m.
Washoe County Deputy Registrar of Voters Andrew McDonald said Tuesday evening that the registrations at UNR account for many of the provisional ballots (or same-day registrations) the county will process in the coming days, calling the 4,000 figure submitted on Election Day alone “pretty high” for Washoe County.
"If you remember doing your homework in college, it's last minute," he said. "So [UNR’s] last-minute same-day registrations ... and that's their right to do that, but it does create long lines."
— Amy Alonzo and Tabitha Mueller, 8 p.m. from Reno
Voters in line at the University of Nevada, Reno polling site on Election Day in Reno on Nov. 5, 2024. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent)
Polls close, but results likely hours away
Polls have closed in Nevada, but results will not be available for hours because of long lines.
Results cannot be released until the last person in line at a polling site has voted. In rural Nye County, the line was slightly under an estimated three hours at the time that polls closed. Wait times were also in the hours in populous Clark and Washoe counties.
People who are in line at 7 p.m. are allowed to vote.
— Eric Neugeboren, 7 p.m. from Las Vegas
Nonpartisans now biggest Election Day voting bloc
In the second statewide report of Election Day turnout, Republicans’ lead continued to narrow — and voters not registered to either party are now nearly 40 percent of the day’s electorate.
Through 2 p.m., 129,515 Nevadans have voted on Election Day — on pace to be a bigger share of the total vote than in 2020. Of those, 50,356 voters are registered nonpartisans or belong to minor parties. Republicans make up 32.7 percent, or 42,321 voters, and Democrats are 28.4 percent with 36,838 voters.
The latest data drop means that nonpartisans make up about 30 percent of all received votes so far — including mail and in-person early voting — while registered Republicans maintain a roughly 48,000-vote lead over registered Democrats. Many more mail ballots are expected in the coming days, which typically favor Democrats.
Registered Republicans, who had a 7 percent turnout advantage over registered Democrats at 10 a.m., now only have a 4.3 percentage point advantage. That’s an identical figure to where the two parties closed the day in 2020; at 2 p.m. four years ago, Republicans had a 16.5 percent turnout advantage.
About 71 percent of the Election Day vote has come from Clark County, where nonpartisans’ share of the turnout — about 40 percent — resembles their share in rest of the state. Democrats follow with 31.5 percent in Clark County, and Republicans make up about 29 percent.
In Washoe County, 40 percent of in-person Election Day voters as of 2 p.m. were nonpartisans, while registered Democrats made up about a quarter of the group and registered Republicans made up about 34 percent. At the same time in 2020, Republicans made up the highest share of in-person Election Day voters at 45 percent, while Democrats have since gained slightly and nonpartisans have gained much more.
In Nevada’s 15 rural counties, which lean heavily red, registered Republicans made up about 54 percent of the in-person Election Day vote share as of 2 p.m., slightly lower than their total Election Day share in 2020 and about 13 percentage points lower than all in-person Election Day voters two years ago.
Meanwhile, the Democratic share of rural voters is slightly higher than the past two election cycles, while the nonpartisan share is much larger than in 2022 but on par with 2020.
— Gabby Birenbaum, 3:20 p.m., in Washington, D.C., and Eric Neugeboren in Las Vegas
SOS says young voters’ lack of consistent signatures contributing to need for curing
Nearly 14,000 mail ballots in Nevada so far require signature curing — which the secretary of state’s office says is concentrated among younger voters, who may not have a standard signature.
Voters must sign their mail ballots before turning them in; those signatures are then checked against a voter’s signature on other documents such as their voter registration, for example, to ensure there are no discrepancies.
When there’s a mismatch, a ballot must be cured. To do so, voters can sign a physical or digital affidavit form affirming that the ballot in question is theirs.
But younger people may be less likely to have a traditional or distinctive signature, given how many documents are now signed online.
Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar toldTheNew York Times that the low average age of voters whose ballots are in need of a signature cure owes to “the fact that young people don’t have signatures these days. And when they did register to vote through the automatic voter registration process, they signed a digital pad at DMV, and that became their license signature.”
Voters whose ballot requires a signature will be contacted by their county or potentially a political party. The secretary of state’s office encourages voters to check that their contact information is up to date, and to use the state’s BallotTrax service to check their ballot’s status.
While the current figure — 13,906 ballots in need of a cure — does not include mail ballots that arrived Nov. 3 or were dropped off on Election Day, the problem is currently most concentrated among nonpartisans. There are 6,383 ballots from voters not registered to a major party, 4,026 ballots from registered Democrats and 3,497 ballots from registered Republicans in need of a signature cure.
The Culinary Workers Union Local 226, a key part of the Democratic machine in Nevada, is running a large signature curing program, as in years past.
— Gabby Birenbaum, 1:35 p.m., Washington D.C.
Desert Breeze voting site filled with candidates and representatives
Election observers from the Democratic and Republican parties and campaign integrity organizations said the hourlong midmorning voting line at the Desert Breeze Community Center in southwestern Las Vegas had been in place since 7 a.m.
As noon encroached, the line continued to grow.
That’s one reason campaign representatives and candidates aligned the pathway leading up to the center — they hoped to reach voters one final time.
District Court Judge Tina Talim, looking to be retained to the Department 14 seat after her appointment this year by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, and Chief Deputy District Attorney Hilary Heap, seeking election to Las Vegas Justice Court Department 4, stood near the bottom of the walkway handing out campaign material to voters as a last reminder.
Along the path, candidates for school board and other down-ballot offices also attempted to give material to voters, who had a 60-minute wait to make up their minds. Tatiana Seaman, the daughter of Las Vegas mayoral candidate Victoria Seaman, said her mother had been at the center earlier in the morning but left to go to another location.
The parking lot was filled with campaign signs, primarily for former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s campaign also had a table set up with T-shirts, caps and other paraphernalia supporting the Republican candidate.
— Howard Stutz, 12:45 p.m., Las Vegas
Voters wait to cast their ballots at Desert Breeze Community Center voting site on Nov. 5, 2024. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Allegiant Stadium polling site draws curious voters and Sen. Rosen
Las Vegas residents Jarrett Clark and Anthony Pecora have voted together on Election Day every year for more than a decade. They said it’s a tradition.
Clark and Pecora thought Allegiant Stadium would be a unique venue for 2024 rather than a school or community center.
“We’ve been here for concerts but never for a football game,” Clark said. “It’s the first time they ever opened the stadium as a voting center.”
The pair said they walked right in and cast their ballots. The Clark County Elections Department had 25 check-in stations and 25 voting booths.
Plus, they also received an Allegiant Stadium-themed black and silver “I voted” sticker along with the traditional red, white and blue sticker handed out by Clark County. Clark and Pecora also took a photo with two of the Las Vegas Raiders Raiderettes cheerleaders.
More than 100 voters were in line before the polls opened. Very quickly, however, the wait time vanished. At one point, local, national and international media crews assigned to Allegiant Stadium outnumbered voters.
According to the Clark County Election Department, as of 1:25 p.m., Allegiant Stadium had seen more than 1,700 voters, the highest number of any of the county's voting centers.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) arrived shortly after 9 a.m. with a large group of local labor union members and first-time voters to cast her ballot in the race against Republican Sam Brown. In remarks to the media afterward, Rosen encouraged Nevadans to vote.
Josh Arriazia, who recently moved to Las Vegas from Southern California, said he was also excited about using Allegiant Stadium as a polling location. When asked about his selection for president, Arriazia said he was leaning one way after listening to a podcast with Joe Rogan, who has endorsed former President Donald Trump.
However, he changed his mind after watching an interview with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I respect Bernie’s views. That changed my opinion,” he said.
— Howard Stutz, 11:20 a.m., Las Vegas
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) takes questions from reporters after casting her ballot at the Allegiant Stadium voting site on Nov. 5, 2024. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent
Republicans lead early Nevada Election Day turnout, but by smaller margins than in past
In the first statewide report of in-person Election Day turnout, Democrats made up about 30 percent of the nearly 57,000 votes cast by 10 a.m., while Republicans made up about 37 percent.
This is an improvement for the Democrats compared with 2020 and 2022. In 2020, registered Democrats made up about 22 percent of in-person Election Day votes as of 10 a.m., while Republicans made up about 40 percent of the initial tally. Registered Republicans entered Election Day with a more than 40,000-vote advantage over registered Democrats, meaning they could be cannibalizing some of their past Election Day voting totals.
In Clark County, Democrats held a slight advantage over Republicans after trailing by double digits at the same time in 2020. Across all of Election Day in 2022, Republicans also had a 15 percentage point lead over Democrats.
In Washoe County, Republicans had a 10 percentage point lead over Democrats in the first three hours of in-person Election Day voting. That is about half of the GOP lead in the first three hours of voting on Election Day in 2020 and Washoe Republicans’ advantage across all of Election Day in 2022.
In Nevada’s rural counties, registered Democrats made up about 12 percent of in-person Election Day voters, while registered Republicans made up about 56 percent and had a raw vote lead of about 3,600.
Across Election Day in 2022, registered Republicans made up about two-thirds of rural votes cast in person, while registered Democrats made up about 11 percent.
— Eric Neugeboren, 11:15 a.m.
Long lines in first few hours of voting
As of 10:15 a.m., nearly 43,000 people had voted in person in Clark County.
Wait times were about an hour at the Galleria at Sunset. The line grew as the morning went on and went out the door before 10 a.m.
Emily Zamora, the executive director of Silver State Voices, a civic engagement group, said in a phone call at around 9 a.m. that there has not been “anything extraordinary” in terms of reports of harassment against election workers.
The group is monitoring Election Day activities throughout the day.
“I think that there are lots of observers out there that are monitoring the election,” Zamora said. “I think that there are some good folks with good intent, and I think that there are some folks that might be out there with not the best intent.”
— Rocio Hernandez, 10:15 a.m., Henderson
Voters line up at the Galleria at Sunset mall in Henderson on Election Day, Nov. 5, 2024. (Rocio Hernandez/The Nevada Independent)
The lines were shorter at Reno High School on Tuesday morning, where Republican U.S. Senate candidate Sam Brown cast his ballot.
Asked by The Nevada Independent whether he will accept the results of the election, Brown said “our country is going to make a choice, and I’m prepared to — and I believe most people are prepared to — live by that.”
In South Reno, a line snaked out the door of the library and wait times hovered around 40 minutes as a steady stream of cars drove into the parking lot.
Across the county, wait times hover around half an hour with a few outliers. Campaigns and candidates were waving signs and greeting voters. Signs along some side streets urged passing drivers to turnout.
To check wait times at voting locations in Washoe County, click on this link.
— Tabitha Mueller, 10 a.m., Reno
Republican candidate for Senate Sam Brown shakes hands with a poll worker after voting at Reno High School on Election Day in Reno on Nov. 5, 2024. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent)
Polls open
Election Day voting centers opened at 7 a.m. across the state, allowing those who did not participate during early voting to cast their ballots.
As of Monday morning, about 1.1 million Nevadans cast a ballot in the general election, either through mail ballots or in-person voting, bringing the total voter turnout to 53 percent.
So far, almost 50 percent of those who have already weighed in have cast a mail ballot, including about 14 percent of Democrats and about 23 percent of Republicans.
Among those who already voted, almost 34 percent were Democrats and nearly 38 percent were Republicans. Other party registrations accounted for about 28 percent of the total turnout.
To speed up the reporting process for results, the secretary of state issued guidance requesting counties to start tabulating mail ballots on Oct. 21, 15 days before Election Day. In-person early votes can be tabulated starting as early as 8 a.m. on Election Day.
There is no restriction on processing mail ballots before that timeline, which can entail sorting the ballots, reviewing the signature on the return envelope and storing the ballot in a secure location, among other procedural tasks.
Though tabulation begins Tuesday morning, unofficial results will not begin posting until all polls are closed and the last voter in line anywhere in the state has cast their ballot.
To vote on Election Day, voters must be in line by 7 tonight. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 5.
On the first day of early voting, Nevadans described this year as the election of their lifetimes, pointing to the swing state’s toss-up status in the presidential race, a U.S. Senate race that could shape control of the upper chamber of Congress, a ballot question that could fundamentally change Nevada’s election system and races that could determine whether Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo can remain a one-man roadblock to the Democratic majority’s agenda in the Legislature.
This year’s election also promises insights into the partisan lean of the state’s growing share of nonpartisan voters.
As of Sunday evening, 53 percent of registered voters cast their ballots during Nevada’s early voting period, split nearly evenly between mail voters and in-person early voters. Based on historical turnout in past presidential elections, this will likely make up more than 70 percent of the total turnout. There likely are tens of thousands of outstanding mail ballots, which can be counted through Saturday, and there will likely be significantly fewer voters on Election Day after Republicans encouraged early and mail voting for the first time.
Here are the storylines we’re watching:
Which presidential candidate will win Nevada’s 6 electoral votes?
As the smallest of the seven swing states that will decide the presidential race, Nevada’s six electoral votes are a critical part of each candidate’s path to 270 electoral votes.
Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have made numerous visits to the swing states to shore up their support. Harris is attempting to recreate the multiracial, multi-generational electoral coalition of Nevadans that has powered Democrats to victories in the presidential race in four straight elections, even as Democrats’ registration advantage has been nearly eliminated.
The Trump campaign, meanwhile, sees opportunity in a state where the unemployment rate is higher than the rest of the country and is home to a relatively low rate of voters with college degrees.
Could the presidential election come down to Nevada? We might know how important it will be by the time polls close, depending on what’s happening on the East Coast. If Harris and Trump split the midwestern Blue Wall states (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), it becomes increasingly important. To learn more about specific scenarios, click here.
Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown, left, and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) shake hands before a debate in Las Vegas on Oct. 17, 2024. (John Locher/AP)
Will Jacky Rosen or Sam Brown prevail in the Senate race?
Nevada is one of arguably 10 states where the battle for control of the upper chamber will play out.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is running for a second term against Army veteran Sam Brown. Rosen has led in polls throughout the cycle — mostly beyond the margin of error — and got out to a hot start by using her financial advantages to begin negatively defining Brown and positively defining herself while the Republican was still fending off primary challengers.
Currently, Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate. With West Virginia a virtual lock to flip to Republican control, Democrats must defend all seven vulnerable seats they currently hold to have a chance at Senate control. Nevada is one of those, and as such, both the Rosen campaign and Democratic groups have spent tens of millions of dollars on the race.
Republicans also think Nevada is a prime pickup opportunity — and are especially encouraged by the GOP’s strong returns in early voting. Both parties expect it to be competitive, and for good reason — in 2022, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-NV) re-election, by less than 1 percentage point, was the closest Senate race in the country.
Will Democrats sweep Southern Nevada’s House races?
Democrats have held all three Southern Nevada-based seats since the blue wave of 2018. Even in tough cycles — like 2022 — when Republican groups threw millions at Las Vegas, Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV), Susie Lee (D-NV) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) have hung on.
This cycle, outside groups have not spent any money to boost challengers Mark Robertson (CD-01), Drew Johnson (CD-03) and former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (CD-04). Thus, the Democratic incumbents are much better-funded and have a giant advantage on the airwaves.
But, but, but … it’s a presidential year. Turnout will be much higher than the 2022 midterms, and each of these seats have narrow voter registration advantages for Democrats. A strong Trump performance at the top of the ticket could be enough to drag the Republican challengers to victory.
These are must-hold seats for Democrats if they want to win back control of the House — losses here, in seats that analysts consider lean towards or are likely safe for Democrats, would be difficult to make up.
Will Mark Amodei be unseated by a wealthy nonpartisan?
For the first time since 1998, no Democrat is running for Congressional District 2 in Northern Nevada.
Instead, Rep. Mark Amodei’s (R-NV) main challenger in the district is Greg Kidd, a wealthy venture capitalist and registered Republican who successfully submitted 1,500 signatures to run for the seat as a nonpartisan. Kidd is largely self-funding his campaign, far outspending Amodei on campaign advertisements and voter outreach efforts.
Amodei has never faced a serious challenge, handily defeating the closest contender in each general election he's run in by double-digit percentage points in a district with a 13.4 percentage point Republican advantage over Democrats.
But Kidd sees a path to victory in the newly vast pool of nonpartisans, combined with support from Democrats — he has leaned heavily on his pro-abortion rights stance and even earned the endorsement of Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV).
The Assembly chambers during the first day of the 82nd legislative session in Carson City on Feb. 6, 2023. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent)
Will Democrats secure supermajorities in the Legislature?
Democrats, who already hold a 28-seat supermajority in the 42-member Assembly, are one seat shy of the 14 seats needed for a two-thirds supermajority in the 21-member state Senate. The party is looking to secure veto-proof supermajorities this election cycle — an outcome that would prove dire for the political relevance of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who proved himself a powerful check in 2023 on the agenda of a consistently Democrat-controlled Legislature.
In key contests, Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck in fundraising..
Fueled by the “Reid Machine” built by longtime U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Nevada Democrats have pumped out electoral wins in recent years. The party further bolstered its structural advantages in congressional and legislative races in 2021 through control of the redistricting process, which saw Democrats redraw state maps.
Outside of the 2014 “red wave” election and subsequent legislative session, Democrats have maintained control of both houses of the Legislature since 2009. Republicans have had more luck winning the governor’s seat, however, and can play a formidable defense against Democratic legislative majorities.
Will Clark County see its first Republican commissioner in more than two decades?
Attorney April Becker is vying to become the first Republican in 20 years to be elected to the Clark County Commission.
Becker faces Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod (D-Las Vegas) in the race to represent District C. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Ross Miller who didn’t seek re-election.
Becker is an attorney who previously lost races for the Nevada Senate and Congressional District 3.
Bilbary-Axelrod, the daughter of the late Rep. James Bilbray, who represented Southern Nevada in Congress from 1987 to 1995, is a four-term state assemblywoman first elected in 2016.
Bruce Woodbury was the last Republican elected to the seven-member board.
Will voters oust the Washoe County Commission chair?
Incumbent Democrat Alexis Hill is facing Republican former Commissioner Marsha Berkbigler to represent District 1 on the Washoe County Commission. Berkbigler held the seat for eight years until Hill defeated her in the 2020 election.
The commission came under intense scrutiny this summer when it initially voted not to certify results from a June primary recount after pressure from Northern Nevada Republicans, including far-right election provocateur Robert Beadles.
Hill, who is the commission chair, is one of two Democrats on the five-person board who voted to certify the recount results. A majority of the board later joined her.
Before her election to the commission, Hill worked in public policy and city planning at the cities of Sparks and Reno.
Berkbigler was a lobbyist in the Legislature for more than 40 years.
Mayor Carolyn Goodman during an interview at Las Vegas City Hall on Sept. 21, 2023. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Who replaces the Goodmans as Las Vegas mayor after 25 years?
Former Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) and Las Vegas City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman are running to become the first Las Vegas mayor in a quarter-century not named Goodman.
Berkley, 73, served 14 years as a Democratic congresswoman representing a district that included a large portion of the City of Las Vegas.
Seaman, 66, is in the middle of her first full term representing the city’s Ward 2. She is a former one-term Republican assemblywoman who was elected to the city council during a special election in 2019 to finish the term of a councilman who resigned.
Current Mayor Carolyn Goodman is term-limited. She succeeded her husband, mob lawyer Oscar Goodman, who began the family’s hold on the office in 1999. The Goodmans did not make an endorsement.
This year’s mayoral race was dominated by the long-running land-use dispute surrounding the defunct Badlands golf course that could cost taxpayers upward of $450 million to $650 million. However, the City Council is expected to discuss and possibly vote on a plan Wednesday to settle the nine-year legal matter for much less.
Will Nevada have ranked-choice and open primary voting?
A ballot measure seeking to make Nevada the third state after Maine and Alaska to implement ranked-choice voting narrowly passed in 2022 but needs to pass one more time in 2024 to take effect.
The biggest changes to Nevada’s election system since the state implemented universal mail-in voting in 2020, Question 3 aims to amend the state Constitution by requiring most partisan general elections to move to a system ranking candidates of all parties by order of preference. It would exclude the presidential election but include U.S. Senate and congressional races, legislative elections and statewide office positions.
Groups supporting and opposing the measure have poured millions of dollars into advertisements and campaign efforts. The campaign for the measure has focused on the ballot measure's open primary element that would allow people not registered with either major party to participate in the primary. Opponents have criticized that approach as misleading because it does not discuss ranked-choice voting.
Will voter ID and abortion ballot questions move forward?
Nevadans are voting on two contentious questions that would amend the state Constitution to require voter ID and establish a fundamental right to abortion.
Because the questions are constitutional amendments, they would also need to pass in 2026 to take effect.
Both questions are widely expected to pass.
The voter ID initiative would require in-person voters in Nevada to present a valid photo identification before voting. People voting by mail would have to include part of a personally identifiable number — such as their driver’s license or Social Security number — alongside their signature.
If it moves forward, it would mark a long time coming for Republicans who have sought the requirement for years as a commonsense measure to ensure election security. Democrats in the Legislature have stymied any GOP effort on the grounds that it could disenfranchise voters and is unnecessary because ID is required to register to vote.
The abortion ballot question is part of a nationwide effort to bolster abortion rights since the fall of Roe v. Wade. Abortion is already legal through 24 weeks into a pregnancy in Nevada, but enshrining it in the state Constitution would make it harder to overturn.
Voters and polling site staff inside the downtown Reno Library on Oct. 19, 2024, the first day of in-person early voting. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent)
Will Nevada see historical turnout levels?
More than 2 million voters are registered in the Silver State. Based on historical turnout data, more Nevada voters tend to cast a ballot in presidential years, and this year could be a record-breaker.
In the 2020 general election — which had one of the highest voter turnouts in U.S history— almost 80 percent of Nevada’s registered voters cast their ballot, according to Nevada’s Secretary of State. In 2016, about 76 percent of Nevada’s 1.4 million registered voters turned out.
Already, some 53 percent of voters cast their ballots during early voting. So far, nearly 60 percent of registered Democrats have turned out, 67 percent of registered Republicans have already cast a ballot, and about 35 percent of registered nonpartisans have voted.
How will nonpartisans swing in the election?
Last summer, registered nonpartisan voters became the largest voting bloc in the Silver State.
Voter registration data from the end of October shows about 33 percent of Nevada voters are registered as nonpartisan, nearly 30 percent as Democrats, almost 30 percent as Republicans and about 7 percent with a minor party. As the state’s share of nonpartisan voters has ballooned, however, it’s not clear whether nonpartisans tend to lean Democrat, Republican or even plan to cast a ballot in 2024.
The state’s automatic voter registration process went into effect in 2020. It automatically registers people who complete DMV transactions to vote unless they opt out, and a “nonpartisan” registration is the default unless someone proactively chooses a party. It’s led to swelling voter rolls, although many of the newly registered are thought to be disengaged from politics.
As one newly registered voter interviewed by The Nevada Independent in 2020 said, “voting’s cool” because you can pick the leader of the U.S.
But would he vote in November of that year?
“Maybe ... we’ll see,” he said.
Will conservatives gain more influence on the Clark County School Board?
Big shifts are coming to the Clark County School Board following the 2024 election, as three of the four incumbents are not running for re-election. Board President Evelyn Garcia Morales is hoping to retain her seat after facing intense pressure to resign amid controversies, such as former Trustee Katie Williams living out of state.
Among the candidates are two former members of the local chapter of the Moms for Liberty, a controversial, conservative “parental rights” group that has pushed for book bans and opposed policies related to LGBTQ+ students. Although they broke away from the local chapter due to personal differences, they say they still stand by its values. A third affiliate, Tim Underwood, is running for the State Board of Education District 1.
All of their opponents are endorsed by three current trustees. The trustees also endorsed Garcia Morales’ opponent.
Cuando era adolescente, a Rene Flores no le gustaba hablar español.
Él sabía lo mínimo para tener conversaciones breves con sus padres en su casa de Reno, pero hablar con sus primos de El Salvador era más difícil.
“Simplemente yo no podía”, dijo. “Me daba pena tener acento, o me corregían mucho”.
Actualmente, el graduado de la Preparatoria Wooster, quien ahora es maestro de matemáticas, ayuda a los estudiantes a sentirse más cómodos con el español como parte del nuevo programa de educación bilingüe de la escuela, el cual inició oficialmente este año escolar. Es el único programa de este tipo que se ofrece a nivel preparatoria en el Distrito Escolar del Condado Washoe.
El programa incluye clases de álgebra y geometría, historia y clases de Artes del Idioma Inglés, además de ciencias, educación física y clases optativas impartidas en inglés. Este año, hay unos 120 estudiantes de primer y segundo año inscritos en las clases.
El año que entra, Wooster está planeando ofrecer una clase de historia universal en español para estudiantes de 10º grado y está considerando qué clases optativas se pueden ofrecer a alumnos de 11º y 12º grado, dijo el director de la Preparatoria Wooster, David Kitchin.
El programa de educación bilingüe se basa en el programa actual de bachillerato internacional de español de la escuela, que ofrece cursos de español a nivel universitario.
Las nuevas clases bilingües brindan a los estudiantes, incluyendo a quienes están aprendiendo español como segundo idioma y a los que crecieron en un hogar hispanohablante pero quieren mejorar su dominio, más tiempo para sumergirse en el idioma y aprender términos nuevos que tal vez no usen en pláticas cotidianas.
A los estudiantes recién llegados que provienen de países de habla hispana, el programa les da la oportunidad de seguir aprendiendo en su lengua materna y conservar sus habilidades en español mientras se adaptan al inglés.
El maestro bilingüe de matemáticas de la Preparatoria Wooster, Rene Flores, imparte sus clases de geometría en español el 17 de octubre de 2024. (Erika Sánchez/Cortesía)
Kitchin dijo que la idea del programa surgió al ver que había una estudiante de Guatemala que batallaba en su clase de geometría, no por los conceptos, sino porque tenía dificultades con el vocabulario en inglés. Pero él quería que las clases fueran inclusivas tanto para hablantes nativos como para estudiantes que estaban aprendiendo español como segundo idioma.
Esta es la primera vez que Flores da clases en español, por lo que el programa es una experiencia de aprendizaje tanto para él como para sus estudiantes.
Al principio del programa, Flores dijo que los estudiantes, e incluso él mismo, sentían cierta timidez al hablar en español frente a toda la clase, pero agregó que se sienten más cómodos y pacientes consigo mismos cuando no saben cómo decir algo en español.
Flores ha notado que las clases han ayudado a los estudiantes recién llegados a salir de su caparazón.
“En una clase normal de inglés, son muy callados, tímidos y reservados … solo intentan pasar desapercibidos”, dijo. “Aquí, simplemente están más activos”.
Las clases también han sido un reto divertido para Flores, quien lleva 14 años como maestro. Él dijo que enseñar geometría bilingüe le hace sentir las mismas mariposas en el estómago que cuando era un maestro nuevo.
“Ha inyectado más pasión y vida a mi carrera”, dijo Flores.
Picking the winners in the top two races, both of which were agonizingly close, should have been the swan song, the ride off into the sunset on my oracular career. But, no, I couldn’t just rest on the laurels of correctly choosing Gov. Joe Lombardo (1.5 percent win) and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (under 1 percent win).
So here we go again.
I usually start these prediction columns by reminding you of my historical brilliance – Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden winning in 2016 and 2020, respectively – as if that might ward off the I-told-you-so mafia in Muskland and the real world if I am wrong. Fool’s errand, right?
@Itweetinmypajamas and @Ihaveendlessmemestoposttomockyou are not the target audience, of course. In this polarized world we live in, the mindless vitriol gets worse, it becomes impossible to penetrate the silos of The Validation Culture.
But once you start a tradition, it’s hard to simply end it because you are worried about being wrong. (What does that feel like?)
I’ve never missed a Nevada presidential call (I have botched races down-ballot) but this one is the hardest since I started doing this – more on that below. But that forecast and all of the others are not just based on early voting data, but also on historical experience, my sources on both sides and, yes, my gut. I think it’s wrong not to explain a rationale for predictions, too. So:
Elections, as always, are about a lot of things, but when distilled, they are about math. And the math this year is confounding.
The early vote is different from any since this data was kept in such detail, and I began analyzing it. Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this.
I won’t repeat a lot of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog — that concludes Trump probably has a 30,000 raw vote lead right now. But my theory of the case is there are still a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted that favor Democrats and the GOP partial cannibalization of its Election Day vote will propel some Democrats to victory but perhaps not quite get there with others. Which is which?
I can see from top to bottom that races could go either way, but I have decided to trust the Reid Machine that has not lost for four consecutive presidential cycles and will somehow get enough ballots turned in during the next few days to do what it always does. All of this falls apart if indies don’t go for Vice President Kamala Harris and if the machine can’t get enough ballots returned – not only would Trump win but there will be upsets down-ballot.
Close races are crazy to try to predict but you also have to be a little bit bonkers to have covered politics for almost four decades. Just sing the chorus over and over.
Onward!
----President: I have been calling this The Unicorn Election because of the unusual voting patterns. It’s really hard to know what will happen with mail ballots and Election Day turnout with so many Republicans voting early. But here’s what I do know: Both sides – at least people who understand the data on both sides – believe this will be close. That’s because, if past is prologue in the mail-ballot era (last two cycles), tens of thousands of mail ballots will come in between now and Friday (the deadline). It’s a simple question: Can the Democrats catch up? It’s really a coin flip, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data who can’t decide. I have gone back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazing over with numbers and models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
----Senate: I don’t think anyone has run a better race than Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has this cycle. It has been almost flawless. She raised a fortune, then spent it early after Sam Brown won the primary pummeling him on abortion and his, ahem, evolving positions. He could never gain his footing and was reduced to prostrating himself before Trump and right-wing cranks. It was almost sad for a guy with a remarkable story of survival and commitment to going on with his life. The truth is, though, that national Republicans settled on Brown, a relatively recent Texas transplant who has never won a race, because the GOP bench here is so thin. He was never in the top tier of GOP hopes, who were more focused on Montana and Ohio. I never believed the polls that showed Rosen up by double digits or high single digits. That’s just not how we roll in Nevada in Senate races. But she will win and this one may be over on Election Night. Prediction: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.
----House: The three Democrat-held congressional seats in the South should not be close. The Republicans, their bench decimated by the Democrats over many cycles, had to settle for second-tier (generous?) candidates who could not come close to the fundraising of the incumbents. Reps. Dina Titus, Steven Horsford and Susie Lee will win, but their races may be closer than expected. They all won in 2022, an off year when they could have been vulnerable. Mark Robertson didn’t do much against Titus two years ago and lost by 6 percentage points; Lee only won by 4 percentage points in 2022, and Drew Johnson was a surprise winner of the primary this year and not considered a serious contender by local or national Republicans; Horsford won by 4 percentage points in 2022 against a poor candidate and the ever-ambitious and party-switching John Lee didn’t spend much this cycle to try to defeat him. The Dems have small ballot leads in each of the districts – Susie Lee’s is virtually tied – but the remaining Clark votes should be heavily Democratic and create some distance. If any of them end up being within 5 percentage points, as seems possible, they will be targeted in 2026. Rep. Mark Amodei should win pretty easily over self-funding nonpartisan Greg Kidd.
----Legislature: The conventional wisdom all year has been that the state Senate would achieve a supermajority while the Assembly was 50-50 to go that route. This is mainly structural (hello, gerrymandering) and less to do with the candidates because Gov. Joe Lombardo’s team recruited some quality hopefuls. In the state Senate, the Democrats have to pick up one seat, and they almost surely will take outgoing GOP Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara as the Democrats have a large ballot lead (5 percent) and the turnout is not likely to get better. So I say Democratic AssemblywomanAngie Taylor defeats Michael Ginsburg. The Dems hoped to defeat GOP Sen. Carrie Buck, whose unhinged social media rants make her seem like a nutty version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Buck will win after building a 5 percent lead over Jennifer Atlas. So the supermajority comes down to Democratic Sen. Dallas Harris and Republican Lori Rogich, a quality contender – the Dem ballot lead is pretty small, but I think Harris holds on as more Democratic votes pour in. So 13-8 becomes 14-7. In the Assembly, Team Lombardo needs to ensure all Republicans hold their seats and just flip one to prevent a supermajority there. Unlike a lot of insiders, I still think the Dems have a chance at a supermajority, depending on how large the mail drop is over the next few days. But in the end, I think the Dems can’t hold it and 28-14 becomes 25-17, with an incumbent or two losing their seats.
----Miscellany: I think Shelley Berkley will be the next mayor of Las Vegas, but it may be closer than people think – Victoria Seaman apparently goes to every event every day. But even though it’s a nonpartisan race, there are too many Democrats who like Berkley and don’t like Seaman in a Democratic city. All of the ballot questions will pass except for Question 3, which is the ranked-choice voting/open primaries question. Conventional wisdom says it should pass, as proponents have spent a fortune. But something tells me they have oversold and the foes have done enough to create fear of change and chaos. (The pro-Q3 ads making it seem as if veterans are disenfranchised may be the most disingenuous ad I have seen in a long time. But maybe it will be rewarded.)
Feel free to congratulate me on my picks if I am correct or needle me if I am wrong – it happens. But not on Twitter because, like most people who want to keep their sanity, I won’t be looking.
Good morning, and welcome to the Indy Education newsletter. I’m Rocio Hernandez, The Nevada Independent’s K-12 education reporter.
This newsletter provides a recap of the latest education stories and highlights interesting educators, students, programs and other events and resources throughout the state. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter and receive it each week via email.
I want to hear from you! Send questions, comments or suggestions on what I should be covering to rocio@thenvindy.com.
News briefs
Dignitaries celebrate the ribbon cutting of the Healing Center at St. Jude’s Ranch for Children in Boulder City on Oct. 30, 2024. (Clark County School District/Courtesy)
New support center for child sex trafficking victims to include school — St. Jude’s Ranch for Children in Boulder City on Wednesday celebrated the grand opening of its new Healing Center, the only residential treatment center in Southern Nevada for child victims of sex trafficking. It’s one of the few in the country dedicated to helping children move from victim to survivor, according to its website. In addition to offering housing, the $30 million center also includes a school in partnership with the Clark County School District. CCSD Associate Superintendent Kevin McPartlin said the school will offer online class options and flexibility when students are having a hard day.
School Spotlight
Wooster High School bilingual math teacher Rene Flores leads his Spanish geometry classes on Oct. 17, 2024. (Erika Sanchez/Courtesy)
Wooster High School’s new bilingual program immerses students into Spanish
As a teen, Rene Flores didn’t like speaking Spanish.
He knew the bare minimum to carry small conversations in Spanish with his parents at their home in Reno, but talking with his cousins from El Salvador was a lot harder.
“I just couldn’t,” he said. “I was just embarrassed that I had an accent, or I just got corrected a lot.”
Today, the Wooster High alum turned math teacher helps students feel more comfortable embracing Spanish as part of the school's new bilingual education program officially launched this school year. It’s the only program of its kind offered at the high school level in the Washoe County School District.
The program includes algebra and geometry, history and Spanish language arts classes taught in Spanish in addition to science, English language arts, physical education and elective classes taught in English. About 120 freshmen and sophomores are enrolled in the classes this year.
Next year, Wooster is planning to offer a world history Spanish class for 10th graders and is brainstorming what elective classes it can offer 11th and 12th graders, said Wooster High Principal David Kitchin.
The bilingual education program builds on the school’s existing international baccalaureate Spanish program, which offers college-level Spanish language courses.
The new bilingual classes give students — including those who are learning Spanish as a second language and those who grew up in a Spanish-speaking household but are looking to improve their mastery — more time to be immersed in the language and learn new terms they might not use in everyday conversations.
For newcomer students who are from Spanish-speaking countries, it gives them a chance to keep learning in their native tongue and retain their Spanish language skills while they adjust to English.
Kitchin said he got the idea for the program while observing a student from Guatemala who was struggling in her geometry class, not because of the concepts, but because she was struggling with the English vocabulary. But he wanted the classes to be inclusive to both native speakers and students learning Spanish as a second language.
It’s Flores’ first time teaching in Spanish, so the program is as much of a learning experience for him as it is for his students.
At the beginning of the program, he said the students, and even himself, felt a little shy about talking in Spanish for the entire class. But over time, he said they've become a lot more comfortable and patient with themselves when they don't know how to say something in Spanish.
He’s noticed the classes have helped newcomer students get out of their shells.
“In a normal English-taught class, they're very quiet and shy and timid and … they're just trying not to be noticed,” he said. “In here, they're just out and about.”
The classes have also been a fun challenge for Flores, who’s in his 14th year as a teacher. He said teaching bilingual geometry has given him the same butterflies he felt as a new teacher.
“It’s injected more passion and life into my career,” Flores said.
Have a student or staffer who we should feature in the next edition of School Spotlight? Share your nominations with me at rocio@thenvindy.com.
School funding is still well below what experts think is needed to ensure good outcomes, according to a new report unveiled Wednesday by the Guinn Center on the new K-12 education funding formula approved in 2019.
In a 45-minute conversation during The Nevada Independent’s annual conference, panelists sparred about the Opportunity Scholarships program, the performance of the Clark County School District and the best ways to meet the needs of Nevada’s students.
The Clark County School Board voted 4-2 Wednesday to appoint Nakia Jackson-Hale, a UNLV School of Nursing assistant dean, to the vacant District B position.
State Board of Education meeting — Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2 p.m.
The agenda includes a summary of the results from the board’s survey on high school start times statewide, results from Clark County School District employee exit surveys and an update on chronic absenteeism within districts.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden was not declared the winner of Nevada’s electoral votes until four days after Election Day.
Is it possible we’ll have to wait that long again?
The short answer is yes. Nevada law allows all mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted until 5 p.m. on Saturday, and mail ballots with an unclear or no postmark must be counted by Friday at 5 p.m. Those statutes were upheld this year despite multiplelawsuits from state and national Republicans.
As a result, in the event of a razor-thin margin like in 2020 (Biden won by about 33,000 votes out of 1.4 million ballots cast), election forecasters may not be comfortable calling the race until days after Election Day because of the possibility of outstanding mail ballots. In the 2022 midterms, about 6 percent of Clark County votes and 3 percent of Washoe County votes were received after Election Day. The highest number of mail votes were received the day after Election Day, but there was a steep dropoff the next day, according to the secretary of state’s office.
Additionally, Nevadans who have to cure the signatures on their mail ballots have until Nov. 12 to do so, which means a small number of results could trickle in one week after Election Day.
On the other hand, the unique circumstances of this year’s election and changes in the state’s counting rules could mean the public has a clearer sense of the state of the race earlier on Election Day.
Ahead of this year’s June primary, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office released new guidance that allowed county election officials to begin counting in-person early votes at 8 a.m. on Election Day. Counties must also report their first batch of results by 6 p.m. on Election Day for verification and quality assurance. People with access to the vote counts before all polls close and results are released must sign a form agreeing to not disclose them, and could face felony charges if that agreement is violated.
State law on that point is the same as it was in 2020, but without explicit guidance to count ballots early on Election Day, county election officials likely counted early votes much later in the day that year, according to the secretary of state’s office.
County officials have also been allowed to start counting mail ballots on Oct. 21, 15 days before Election Day, as was the case in 2020.
This means that, if all goes to plan, the first batch of results publicly posted online on election night should include all of the early in-person votes and mail ballots received before Election Day, according to the secretary of state’s office.
In this year’s election, that will likely make up a large majority of the votes, as more than 1 million early and mail votes had been cast as of Sunday. Republicans have encouraged their supporters to use early and mail voting after falsely claiming in 2020 that those two methods would be rife with fraud. Republican voters have heeded leadership’s call — leading registered Democrats by more than 40,000 votes cast as of Sunday — and will likely be turning out in-person on Election Day at much lower rates than four years ago because so many have already cast their ballots.
Nevada law also stipulates that no results can be released until the final person voting in-person on Election Day has voted. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, but people who are in line by that time are allowed to vote.
In the June primaries, the polls officially closed at 7:54 p.m., and the first results were posted 10 minutes later, though turnout is going to be much higher in the November elections, which create more lines that keep the polling places open longer.
However, onlookers should exercise caution when looking at the initial numbers because it is unknown how many mail ballots may be outstanding.
Updated on 11/4/24 at 2:30 p.m. to include the signature curing deadline.
Boyd Gaming CEO Keith Smith thought a $305 million, two-year project to redevelop and expand the interchange between Tropicana Avenue and Interstate 15 was nearing an end.
He was wrong.
It’s going to take much of the next year for the Nevada Department of Transportation to finish rebuilding an important intersection that allows future widening of I-15 — the highway connecting Las Vegas with Southern California — while adding more travel lanes to provide better access to the southern end of the Strip.
The project, often referred to as “Dropicana” by department officials and television traffic reporters, is expected to improve Tropicana Avenue's connection to Harry Reid International Airport while accommodating additional vehicular access to the 18,000-seat T-Mobile Arena, 65,000-seat Allegiant Stadium and a planned 33,000-capacity Major League Baseball stadium.
But continued work on the project means continued business disruptions at the Orleans, Boyd’s largest Las Vegas hotel-casino.
Smith wasn’t pleased when he found out a few months ago construction would continue well into 2025, adding more road closures, overnight and weekend shutdowns of I-15 and traffic tie-ups that have impeded customer access to the nearly 2,000-room hotel-casino, which is less than a mile and a half west of the interchange on Tropicana Avenue.
The loss of business at Orleans has become evident in its financial reporting. The Las Vegas market, which includes Orleans and six other properties, is Boyd’s only operating segment to show a revenue decline in all three quarters of 2023. Boyd’s three downtown casinos have combined for a 3.4 percent revenue increase over the same nine months.
“We didn't talk about it much because we were hopeful it was going to be over with this year,” Smith told The Nevada Independent in an interview last month following the company's third-quarter earnings announcement. “But now we got another year of this.”
He said the Orleans’ business is heaviest during the last six months of the year, which is why he hoped the interchange project would be completed by then.
One saving grace for the Orleans, he said, has been Las Vegas Raiders home games at Allegiant Stadium, which boost weekend traffic. The seven Boyd casinos in the Las Vegas segment have a marketing agreement with the team as the “official locals casino partner” for the Raiders.
Boyd’s Las Vegas market is down $30.5 million to $663.5 million, or nearly 4.4 percent, over the year’s first nine months. It’s one of only five divisions in the company's only one of five divisions where revenue hasn’t increased year-over-year. The segment is also Boyd’s second-largest revenue producer behind its 17 regional properties in nine states, which reported $1.5 billion over nine months.
In an email, Kelsey McFarland, a spokeswoman for the Nevada Department of Transportation, said the completion date for the I-15/Tropicana project was shifted to 2025 because “challenges aligning schedules across multiple utility agencies added complexity to the project timeline.”
Also, major Las Vegas events, such as last year’s Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix and Super Bowl LVIII in February, were announced long after the transportation department set the project construction schedule, “requiring full-site shutdowns, further impacting our timeline.”
McFarland said the department distributes weekly updates to businesses in the area that show traffic restrictions and closures.
Boyd Gaming CEO Keith Smith stands for a photo at the company’s Orleans Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas on Feb. 3, 2023. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
According to the transportation department’s website, interchange work will include a reconstruction of the Tropicana bridge above I-15. The I-15 southbound flyover ramp to Tropicana eastbound will be closed, partially demolished and rebuilt, limiting access to several casinos, including the MGM Grand Las Vegas, Excalibur and New York New York.
In a research note, Truist Securities gaming analyst Barry Jonas wrote that MGM Resort International executives said they weren’t seeing any of the same effects from I-15 interchange construction that Boyd noted.
Smith said the traffic disruption has been especially hard on visitors from Southern California, a key feeder market to the Orleans. He said Orleans executives tried to work with customers on alternate routes to the hotel-casino.
“We’ve been doing this for more than a year and we’ve tried to instruct [hotel guests] to come in the back way,” Smith said. “When they do the pave-a-thons and they shut it all down, it gets even more complicated.”
Adding to Boyd’s woes are efforts by the new owners of the Palms Casino Resort and Rio Las Vegas, who Smith said have launched “aggressive promotional efforts” such as gaming incentives, two-for-one meals at restaurants and other incentives to draw customers into their properties.
The operating arm of the San Manuel Indian Tribe reopened the Palms in April 2022 while Dreamscape Cos. took over the operations of the Rio in late 2022 and has been remodeling and renovating the resort with new restaurants and other attractions.
The campaigns have cut into business at the Gold Coast on West Flamingo, which is adjacent to both off-Strip properties, and the Orleans, which is less than a mile from the Gold Coast.
Smith told analysts last month the company will not get into a bidding war for customers.
“Boyd is remaining disciplined and waiting out the impact, maintaining normal promotional levels,” Jonas wrote in a research note, calling the campaigns “aggressive.”
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