The battle for control of Congress is coming down to the wire, as House Republicans entered Election Day with a 5-seat majority — and Senate Democrats can't afford to lose any of the competitive seats where they're on defense.

Why it matters: Strategists in both parties and independent analysts acknowledge that neither party is likely to walk away with a majority that's larger than single digits.

Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

State of play: Going into Election Day, House Democrats and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) felt hopeful they could protect most of their vulnerable incumbents while knocking off enough Republicans to flip the majority.

• But Republicans and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) hoped to minimize their House losses while potentially making inroads in a handful of seats that are being vacated by retiring Democrats or that former President Trump won in 2020.
• In the Senate, both parties expected Republicans to win a narrow majority by knocking off Democratic incumbents in Montana (Jon Tester) or Ohio (Sherrod Brown).

What to watch: California was expected to hold the keys to the kingdom in the House. The West Coast state – notorious for being slow to tally all its votes – contains more than half a dozen competitive districts, including five seats held by Republicans that were rated "toss-up" by Cook Political Report.

• Both parties were also closely watching Virginia, where polls closed at 7pm ET. Republicans believed a good result in Virginia's open 7th District would portend a good night for their party. Democrats were doing the same in the state's 2nd District.

In the Senate, the list of must-watch battlegrounds was broader.

• Democrats were mostly on defense, including in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Montana, and Arizona.
• Republicans had fewer vulnerable seats, although races tightened in Nebraska, Texas and Florida.

Around 80 million voters have already cast ballots, tens of millions more will line up today, and it's all likely to come down to seven swing states.

Why it matters: We may or may not know for sure whether former President Trump or Vice President Harris has been elected by the end of the night. But following the real-time data and zooming in on key counties can give you a sense of where things are headed.

• Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

Catch up quick: The polling models consider this a coinflip election.

• It's likely to be decided by five states that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — along with Nevada and North Carolina.
• In Congress, Democrats would need a huge night to retain control of the Senate, as more vulnerable Dems are on the ballot this cycle. Control of the House is very much up for grabs.

When polls close

Breaking it down: The Axios live results dashboard will start filling in as soon as polls close, starting at 6pm ET.

• Georgia and Virginia close at 7pm ET, North Carolina and Ohio are among those closing at 7:30pm ET, and critical Pennsylvania is among the 16 states cutting off voting at 8pm ET.
• The last swing state polls to close will be in Arizona and Nevada at 10pm ET.

When we'll know who won

The time it takes to count ballots varies widely by state.

• The Harris campaign says it expects near-complete results from three swing states — Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina — on election night, along with most of Wisconsin's results by Wednesday morning.
• Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada will likely be counting ballots through Wednesday and beyond.

Between the lines: Based on that timeline, we could have a pretty clear idea of who won on election night.

• If either candidate wins Michigan and the two southern swing states, for example, the other would have only a very narrow path to victory.

Yes, but: If it's as close as the polls suggest, we might not know who won for up to a few days. That may be frustrating, but it's not a sign of fraud.

• Trump will likely declare victory on election night regardless of what the results show, and some of his allies have claimed the only way he'll lose is if the Democrats cheat. Those claims have no basis in fact.

How we'll know who's winning

State-level results can only tell you so much while they're still trickling in, so we've spotlighted 13 key counties to watch based on analysis from the Cook Political Report. Three examples:

• Saginaw County, Michigan, flipped to Trump in 2016 before Biden won it by a mere 303 votes in 2020. It's a good barometer for Harris' chances of holding the "Blue Wall" and winning over enough working-class white voters.
• Baldwin County, Georgia, went to Biden by just 1.3 points in 2020. The primarily rural county over-indexes with Black voters and college students, shedding light on enthusiasm levels for Harris with both groups.
• Northampton County, Pennsylvania, is a classic bellwether county with a significant Puerto Rican population, meaning it could give us a sense of where PA is headed — and of how damaging Trump's Madison Square Garden rally may have been.
• Read the full breakdown.

Zoom out: States we don't expect to come down to the wire can still tell us quite a bit.

• If the networks quickly call Virginia for Harris, for example, that will be a major confidence booster for her campaign. A tight race there could signal trouble, given Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020.
• Yes, but: Rural counties tend to report first. If you see Trump winning Virginia early on don't assume it will stay that way.

Turnout: Three wildcards

• Low-propensity voters: Historically, elections with high turnout have favored Democrats. But this time that's less clear cut as Harris is leading among older, college-educated voters, while Trump is relying on young men without college degrees who turn out at lower rates.
• Black voters: Harris' camp is counting on Black turnout in a few big cities in swing states like Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Charlotte. If turnout exceeds 50% in Detroit, Harris is likely having a good night.
• Gen Z voters: While Gen Z men are moving right, America's youngest voters still overwhelmingly back Dems. Younger voters turned out in force for Biden in 2020, something Harris hopes to repeat, but at lower rates for Clinton in 2016.

Control of Congress also up for grabs

All 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats are on the line today.

Senate: Republicans are very almost certain to pick up retiring Sen. Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia, meaning they need just one more flip to guarantee control of the Senate.

• Several Democrats are in tight races, and Montana Sen. Jon Tester looks particularly vulnerable.

House: Democrats only need to pick up four seats to flip the House, and whichever party gains control is likely to have a slender majority.

• There are competitive races all over the country, including in deep blue California and New York.

What Harris and Trump will be doing

Harris is hosting a watch party tonight at her alma mater, Howard University, in D.C.

• She voted by mail in her home state of California.

Trump is expected to cast his ballot in Florida, and his campaign is hosting a party at the Palm Beach Convention Center.

• Trump will also gather with family and friends at Mar-a-Lago.

Go deeper: Follow the live results.

Just a handful of counties across seven swing states will point the way to the White House for Former President Trump or Vice President Harris.

Why it matters: If you want to know which way the race is going on Election Night, this your cheat sheet.

• Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

The big picture: In 2016, more than 200 counties that had voted for former President Obama in 2012 turned red for Trump.

• In 2020, less than half that number switched from Trump to Biden, but it was enough to flip Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
• Those states hang in the balance once again, along with Nevada and North Carolina.
• The polls offer no clarity as to which candidate will carry those states, but the results on election night will — even if the states remain too close to call — if you know where to look.

Here's election data maestro Dave Wasserman's 13 countries to watch, from the Cook Political Report.

Baldwin County, Georgia

Located in central Georgia, Baldwin is a primarily rural county with a significant Black population and two colleges, far from the state's major metro centers.

• While the county has gone blue in presidential elections since 2004, the Democratic Party's margins have shrunk in recent years. Biden won it by 1.3 points, down from Hillary Clinton's 1.7.
• If Trump wins Baldwin County, it indicates the Harris campaign didn't successfully turn out young and Black voters in Georgia, per Wasserman's analysis.

Fayette County, Georgia

Located in the suburbs of Atlanta, Fayette County has typically been carried by Republican candidates but has been trending more Democratic as college-educated suburbanites flee the GOP.

• The county went to Trump by 19 points in 2016 but only seven in 2020.
• Wasserman thinks Harris needs to "come close to winning" here as she's likely to lose votes elsewhere in the state.

Cabarrus County, North Carolina

Cabarrus County in the suburbs of Charlotte has also gone red in the previous two elections, though Trump's margin shrunk from 20 points in 2016 to nine in 2020.

• If Trump wins the country by five points or less, Harris has a "decent shot" in North Carolina, Wasserman writes.

Nash County, North Carolina

Located near Raleigh, Nash County flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, but both won it by a razor thin two-tenths of a point.

• However, in the 2022 Midterms, Sen. Ted Budd (R) won the county by seven points.
• The candidate for who carried Nash County also carried the state in each of the past three presidential elections.

Muskegon County, Michigan

Near Grand Rapids, Muskegon County has gone Democratic by ever-shrinking margins from Obama (18%) to Clinton (1.5%) to Biden (0.6%).

• However, Muskegon County robustly supported Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the state's constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access in 2022.
• If Harris carries the county, it could be a good sign for her support among white, working-class women, Wasserman notes.

Saginaw County, Michigan

A key swing county in a critical battleground state, Saginaw County near Lake Huron flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.

• Biden won the county in 2020 by a scant 303 votes as he narrowly held the Midwestern "Blue Wall."
• If Trump wins the county, it could be a strong indicator that polls have underestimated his support among non-college whites, per Wasserman's analysis.

Bucks County, Pennsylvania

Non-college educated white voters make up about half the electorate in Bucks County, higher than other areas in the Philadelphia suburbs.

• Biden carried Bucks by four points in 2020. If Harris loses here, it's a sign she wasn't able to replicate his success with white working class voters.
• One warning sign for Harris: In 2024, the number of registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in the county for the first time in 15 years.

Cumberland County, Pennsylvania

Located near the state capital of Harrisburg, winning Cumberland County — or even coming relatively close — could help Harris offset losses elsewhere in the ultimate battleground state.

• Trump won the county in both 2016 (+18 points) and 2020 (+11 points), but the county is getting more diverse and more Dem-friendly.

Northampton County, Pennsylvania

Eastern Pennsylvania's Northampton County has successfully predicted all but three presidential winners since 1920, making it an apt bellwether for the race.

• Trump won the county by four points in 2016 and Biden by 1.2 points in 2020.
• Roughly 16% of Northampton County is Hispanic, with most of those voters being Puerto Rican. If Trump stumbles, it could signify the recent bigoted jokes at his Madison Square Garden rally were damaging.

Sauk County, Wisconsin

Sauk County near Madison, Wisconsin has bounced between Democrats and Republicans over the past few presidential elections.

• Biden won the county by roughly 600 votes in 2020, after Trump won it by less than 200 in 2016, local media reported.
• For either candidate, winning Sauk county could be indicative or their reach into the state's rural communities and small towns.

Ozaukee County, Wisconsin

Located in the suburbs of Milwaukee, Ozaukee County is one of three red counties that make up the Republican party's base in Wisconsin.

• Yet Democrats have been gaining ground in the county. It went to Trump by 19 points in 2016 and then by 12 points in 2020.
• If Harris can close the gap even more, it could help her offset other loses in rural parts of the state, per Wasserman.

Maricopa County, Arizona

Maricopa county, which includes Phoenix, is home to roughly 60% of Arizona's voters.

• Biden won the county by 2.2 points in 2020, after Trump carried it by 2.9 points in 2016.
• False claims of voter fraud in Arizona's 2020 and 2022 elections inspired violent threats and armed demonstrations in Maricopa County. Election officials this year have warned that it could take up to 13 days to know the results in Maricopa, AP reported.

Washoe County, Nevada

Nevada's Washoe County, which encompasses Reno, is the state's second-most populous county.

• Biden won Washoe by 4.5 points in 2020, an improvement upon Clinton's 1.3 point margin in 2016.
• Dem gains in Washoe County could offset losses in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, where the GOP has made gains in recent years, Wasserman notes.

Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: A just-stay-calm strategy

Voters in 10 states will decide on 11 abortion-related ballot measures on Election Day.

The big picture: 2024 marks the most abortion-related measures on statewide ballots in a given year and comes during the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

• Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

Zoom out: Abortion rights continue to be a winning issue for Democrats and could motivate otherwise uninspired voters to turn out. Recent polling shows abortion has passed inflation to be the top issue for women under 30.

• Reproductive rights have been a key topic throughout this election cycle, with former President Trump and Vice President Harris adopting starkly different stances and language.
• Harris has campaigned on protecting access to abortion if she's elected, while Trump waffled on the question of a national ban before settling on a leave-it-to-the-states approach.

State of play: A majority of the measures are centered around expanding abortion access.

Here's a look at what's at play:

• Arizona's ballot measure, if passed, would permit abortions up to the point of fetal viability, around 24 weeks of pregnancy. Abortion in the state is currently banned from 15 weeks.
• Colorado already allows abortion under a 2022 law but voters will decide whether to strengthen the protections in the state constitution.
• Florida voters will have a chance to enshrine abortion access until fetal viability in the state constitution. A six-week ban on the procedure took effect in May.
• Maryland voters will decide whether to add a new article to the state constitution to guarantee the right to reproductive freedom, defined to include "the ability to make and effectuate decisions to prevent, continue, or end one's own pregnancy." Abortion is currently legal in Maryland until viability.
• Missouri voters are deciding whether they want to guarantee a right to abortion through a constitutional amendment. The state effectively banned abortions after Roe was overturned.
• Montana voters are casting ballots on whether to enshrine abortion rights protections into the state's constitution. Though Montana is a conservative state, abortion is legal until viability.
• Nebraska has two competing measures relating to abortion on the ballot. Abortion is currently legal in the state up to the 12th week of pregnancy.
• The Right to Abortion Initiative would add an amendment to the state constitution to establish a right to abortion until fetal viability or when needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant person.
• Nebraska Initiative 434, also called the Protect Women and Children Initiative, would amend the state constitution to prohibit abortions after the first trimester unless necessitated by a medical emergency or unless the pregnancy is a result of sexual assault or incest.
• New York voters will decide whether to amend the state constitution to add language related to pregnancy and personal freedom. The ballot measure, if approved by voters, would add protections from future threats in a state where abortion is already legal up to 24 weeks post-fertilization.
• Nevada voters will decide whether to protect the right to an abortion in the state constitution. The procedure is already legal in the state up until 24 weeks of pregnancy, though it can be performed later when the life of the pregnant person is at risk. If the measure passes, it will have to be voted on again in 2026 before it can be added to the constitution due to state law.
• South Dakota will vote on instating a trimester framework in the state constitution for regulating abortion. The procedure is currently banned in the state, except to save the life of a pregnant person.

Go deeper: Where abortion is on the ballot in November

The Biden administration warned the Iraqi government that if it doesn't prevent an Iranian attack from its soil, it could face an Israeli attack on its territory, two U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The U.S. is trying to deter Iran from attacking Israel and is concerned that if it does strike Israel from Iraqi soil it would further escalate the regional war.

Driving the news: Israeli and U.S. intelligence indicates Iran is planning a significant attack against Israel from Iraqi soil in the coming days as a retaliation for Israel's Oct. 25 strike in Iran, U.S. and Israeli officials said.

• The officials said that since the Israeli attack, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been moving drones and ballistic missiles to Shia militias in Iraq and have been planning a joint attack against Israel.
• The U.S. warned Iran in public and in private against launching such an attack but so far the Iranians haven't shown any willingness to de-escalate, a U.S. official said.

Behind the scenes: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday about the planned Iranian attack from Iraq, one U.S. official said.

• On Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to al-Sudani about the same issue.
• Two U.S. officials said Sullivan and Blinken also pressed the Iraqi prime minister to stop Shia militia attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria and their attacks against Israel, which have been escalating in recent weeks.

Zoom in: Sullivan and Blinken also told al-Sudani he must not allow Iran to conduct an attack against Israel from Iraqi territory, the U.S. officials said.

• "If you don't, we won't be able to stop Israel from striking Iraq," a U.S. official quoted the Biden administration's message to the Iraqi prime minister.
• The White House and the State Department declined to comment. The Iraqi embassy in Washington, D.C., didn't provide a comment.

The other side: The Iraqi prime minister and his advisers have made clear in private and in statements in the Iraqi press that they don't want to see Iraq dragged into the Israel-Iran conflict.

• The Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, on Tuesday quoated a senior official in one of the Shia militias in Iraq who said al-Sudani hasn't succeeded so far to convince the pro-Iranian armed factions in Iraq to stop its attacks against Israel.
• "Al-Sudani has increased his efforts to press Israel not to implement its threats to strike Iraq, in return for not allowing Iran to use Iraqi soil to retaliate against Israel. The Iraqi government's efforts are facing significant challenges, because there are factions that still say they will attack Israeli and U.S. interests," al-Akhbar quoted the militia official as saying.

What they're saying: State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement that Blinken told al-Sudani the Iraqi government must "fulfill its commitments to protect U.S. personnel and to pursue those responsible for attacks from Iraq on U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria, including from attacks by Iran-aligned militias."

• "The Secretary emphasized it is important that Iraq not be drawn into regional conflict and underscored the need for Iraq to exert control over armed groups launching unauthorized attacks from its territory," Miller said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday fired the country's minister of defense, Yoav Gallant.

Why it matters: Netanyahu's decision amid Israel's multifront war is being driven largely by domestic political pressure, including from members of his coalition government who are pressing him to pass laws that would exempt ultra-Orthodox men from serving in the military.

• Gallant opposes the laws, while the ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition are threatening to topple the government if the laws aren't passed in the coming days.
• By firing Gallant, who was independent and challenged the prime minister's policies regarding the war many times, Netanyahu will now have tighter control over national security decision-making.

The big picture: Gallant was the most trusted partner in the Israeli government for the Biden administration.

• A U.S. official told Axios the White House was very surprised by Netanyahu's decision to fire Gallant.
• "Minister Gallant has been an important partner on all matters related to the defense of Israel," a National Security Council spokesperson told Axios.
• "As close partners, we will continue to work collaboratively with Israel's next Minister of Defense," the spokesperson added.

Zoom in: In a speech on Tuesday, Gallant said Netanyahu fired him because of their disagreement on three issues: Gallant's opposition to a law that would exempt ultra-Orthodox men from military service, his support for a deal to release hostages held by Hamas and establish a ceasefire in Gaza, and his call for a commission of inquiry into the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attacks.

• "We must not allow a discriminatory and corrupt bill to pass in the Knesset — it is time for change," Gallant said, referring to the law Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners are demanding he pass.
• Gallant said a hostage and ceasefire deal demands "painful compromises" but stressed there will be "no remorse" for those who abandoned the hostages."It will remain a stain on Israeli society and on those who lead Israel down this wrong path," Gallant said.
• He renewed his call for national commission of inquiry to investigate the security failures that led to the Oct. 7 attack."We are surrounded by darkness of values and I am sticking to my compass — I hope other elected officials do the same", he said.

State of play: Netanyahu announced he is appointing Foreign Minister Israel Katz as minister of defense. Katz has no military background and limited experience on national security issues.

• Netanyahu also said he is appointing Gideon Saar as Israel's foreign minister.

What they're saying: Netanyahu claimed he fired Gallant because of a lack of trust needed to work together.

• "Significant gaps emerged between me and Gallant in the management of the war, and these gaps were accompanied by statements and actions that contradicted government and Cabinet decisions," Netanyahu said.
• He claimed he made many attempts to bridge the gaps with Gallant "but they kept widening" and accused Gallant of making the disagreements between them public, "which pleased our enemies who benefited greatly from it."
• Gallant issued a short statement in response: "The security of the State of Israel always was and will always remain my life's mission."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from Gallant and from the U.S. National Security Council spokesperson.

Former President Trump told reporters after casting his ballot that he's not sure whether he'll declare victory on election night, as he did in 2020, and acknowledged the possibility he could lose.

Why it matters: Allies and adversaries alike expect Trump to announce he won, regardless of what results show, and to claim fraud if he loses. That gives added significance to Trump's statement that he currently believes this election has been "fair," and to his concession that there is even the slightest possibility Vice President Harris could win.

Yes, but: Trump claimed without evidence that he came into Election Day with a big lead and that "Republican lines" had been much longer across the country this morning.

• He also cast doubt on the efficiency and reliability of voting machines, and called it an "absolute outrage" that key states take so long to count ballots.
• But Trump did say there will be "no violence" after the election because "my supporters are not violent people."

The big picture: Trump, who is 78 and faces multiple criminal prosecutions if he loses, struck a wistful note when asked by reporters at the polling place in Florida whether this will be his last election.

• "I would think so," he said, adding that made him feel "sad and very fulfilled."
• Trump acknowledged twice that while he expects to win, "something else" could happen, at one point saying: "I don't even want to think about the losing part."

The flipside: Trump was less measured when speaking about Oprah Winfrey and "Barack Hussein Obama."

• Both should be "ashamed" of themselves for dividing the country, as should Fox News for airing interviews with Oprah, Trump said.

What we're watching: Trump said he has not written a speech for tonight, win or lose, but that "if I win, I know what I'm going to say."

Go deeper: Follow along with our live election overage

Former President Trump's chances of recapturing the White House fell sharply over the weekend across prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Then they climbed back up.

Why it matters: Volatility like this underlines why using betting markets to gauge the status of the presidential race is tricky. And yet, prediction and betting markets have emerged this year as a powerful force in shaping public opinion — and campaign messaging — about the horse race.

• Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

The big picture: Prediction markets are misnamed.

• They are betting lines intended to provide a price to wager on at a given moment in time — not necessarily to forecast whether the outcome is probable.

By the numbers: Trump's chances of recapturing the White House fell from 67% on Polymarket on Oct. 30 to 53% on Sunday and then back to 62% on Tuesday morning.

• Vice President Harris went from 33% to 47% to 38%.

The intrigue: The public may judge the success of prediction markets based on the outcome of the election, with a Trump victory meaning the markets were right all along, while a Harris win means they messed up.

• That's not necessarily fair. It's like "claiming the stock market fails to value companies accurately simply because share prices change over time," says Lloyd Danzig, managing partner at Sharp Alpha, an investment firm focused on sports, gaming and entertainment.
• "In both cases, it is investor sentiment surrounding then-available data that drives pricing in a given moment," he added in an email.

Zoom in: On prediction markets, bettors — or shall we call them investors? — can sell their contracts at a loss or a gain, depending on how the markets have moved since they first bought in.

• Someone who bought Trump at 52%, or 52 cents on the dollar, could've sold at 64%, or 64 cents, for a sizable gain without waiting for the election to actually take place.
• Anyone who holds on to their contracts through the ballot count will either see them go to $0 or go to $1.

Follow the money: It's possible that Trump's odds fell over the weekend because more investors were cashing out their bets.

Flashback: Hillary Clinton's odds of winning in 2016 on PredictIt were 82% the day before Election Day.

• Bookies put 90% odds on U.K. voters rejecting Brexit. That's not what happened.

Zoom out: Like prediction markets, political polls are also a measure of current sentiment and not necessarily predictive.

• However, unlike polls, single individuals can sway prediction markets with big bets, as Axios' Brady Dale explained last month.

The bottom line: Voting day is upon us and we'll soon get the real numbers on who's ahead.

America's whiplash election ends Tuesday when polls close nationwide following a year of political uncertainty and violence unlike any other in this country's modern history.

Why it matters: A perfect storm fueled by the unrelenting pace of historic headlines has conspired to test America and its democracy.

The big picture: An Axios analysis of Google Trends data (charted above) shows the dramatic peaks and valleys of America's attention span since January.

• At almost every moment since May, the election has found a way to demand the near-constant attention of a populace wary of former President Trump, President Biden and Vice President Harris, who are historically unpopular.

Zoom in: Trump became the first former American president convicted of felony crimes. The sentencing is scheduled for three weeks from Tuesday, putting his freedom in jeopardy if he loses tonight.

• He then survived two assassination attempts, narrowly escaping a close call at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, when a bullet grazed his ear.
• He's sold Trump Bibles, Trump sneakers and Trump NFTs.
• His extreme rhetoric has infected the election. Just in the past week, Trump has said he "shouldn't have left" the White House after losing in 2020; said he wouldn't mind if reporters were shot at; and encouraged a supporter who insulted Harris as a prostitute.

Somewhere in the middle, President Biden dropped out of the race after being pushed aside by fellow Democrats following his debate debacle — a group that included former Speaker Nancy Pelosi to George Clooney.

• His vice president replaced him on the ticket. Her folksy way of talking about coconut trees became an improbably popular meme among young Americans.
• Her campaign became associated with "Brat," the wildly popular green-hued album by pop star Charli XCX.
• She was forced to navigate the election as a quasi-incumbent, largely unable to separate herself from the Biden administration's positions while evading questions about policy promises from her 2019 Democratic primary run.

By the numbers: These five search terms generated the biggest election-adjacent spikes this year.

1. Trump, which peaked after the first assassination attempt in July.
2. Harris, hitting a high the day Biden withdrew.
3. Biden, peaking on the same day as Harris.
4. Israel, which reached a high in April during a wave of campus protests.
5. Debate, which got the most interest in September when Trump and Harris faced off in Philadelphia.

Between the lines: Those top search terms are only the tip of the news iceberg.

• Elon Musk, who already maintained high levels of interest, attracted even more attention when he threw his money and voice behind Trump's campaign.
• Madison Square Garden and Puerto Rico have seen serious spikes since a comedian called the island "garbage" at Trump's Manhattan rally last month.

What's next: There are no signs this unprecedented and unhinged election cycle will stop here. Almost anything can happen in the 76 days between today and the inauguration.

Some state GOP officials and former "fake" electors from 2020 who are serving again in this year's election don't plan to fall in line with any push to overturn the results if Vice President Harris wins their state, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's the latest sign that if Republicans try to reverse an election loss by Donald Trump this year in a way similar to the alleged elector scheme of 2020, it will be tougher to carry out.

• The fallout from the 2020 debacle — which led to charges against dozens of GOP party operatives — has sapped some of the enthusiasm for a repeat.

What we're watching: Electors in swing states Michigan and Pennsylvania tell Axios they won't sign any Electoral College documents unless a Trump victory in their state is certain.

• And in Wisconsin, another closely contested swing state, state GOP officials said last month that their list of electors will be irrelevant if Harris wins the state.

What they're saying: "I can tell you that Hank will be much more careful this time around," Dave Kallman, the lawyer representing Michigan elector Hank Choate, told Axios. "If Harris wins, I don't think you're going to be seeing him showing up in Lansing to sign anything."

• "The only way that Hank's signing anything is if Trump wins," added Kallman, whose client has pleaded not guilty to several criminal charges, including forgery.
• Kallman says Choate and other GOP electors in Michigan essentially were duped by Trump attorneys who said they weren't going to use the Electoral College certificate they signed unless either the legislature acted on Trump's behalf or Trump won a court case challenging the state's results.

"Whoever wins, wins. That is the process. We did not do illegal things last time and we will not do illegal things this time," Ash Khare, who was designated as a GOP elector in Pennsylvania in 2020 and again this year.

• Khare signed a false electoral certificate in 2020 but wasn't charged because he and his fellow Pennsylvania GOP electors added a clause to their false electoral certificate saying that their votes should be counted only if a court found them to be valid electors.

Wisconsin's Republican Party, meanwhile, has indicated that it will not support another fake electors scheme if Trump loses.

• Asked by reporters whether Wisconsin's GOP would support a potential election challenge by Trump, state party spokesperson Matt Fisher said that campaigns have the right to bring up issues in court, but "what matters in any election is who has the most votes."
• "If Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have the most votes, they are thereby the winners of Wisconsin and these [Republican] electors...will not be assembling or meeting. They will have no purpose."

The big picture: The Electoral Count Reform Act, signed into law in 2022, provides another deterrent for any attempts to overturn election results.

• Among other changes, it raises the threshold for objecting to a state's electoral votes by requiring one-fifth of both the U.S. House and Senate to do so, instead of the one representative and one senator previously required.

Reality check: A significant number of electors on this year's roster, including local officials from Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, have been vocal proponents of Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election and haven't appeared to back away from those claims.

• Nevada GOP chair Michael McDonald, a loyal Trump ally, defended his role as a fake elector in 2020, and Washoe County (Nevada) GOP chairman Bruce Parks continues to make unfounded claims of mass voter fraud.

By the numbers: Trump's campaign says it has assembled a massive "election integrity" unit of 230,000 poll watchers and poll workers across the nation and hundreds of lawyers in each battleground state, ready to file lawsuits challenging voting procedures and election rules if Trump loses.

The vast majority of America's largest newspapers by circulation aren't endorsing a presidential candidate this year, marking a stark departure from previous election cycles.

Why it matters: Endorsements have fallen off significantly in the past two election cycles as papers grapple with growing polarization and fears of political retribution.

By the numbers: The only two endorsements former President Trump received from the top 100 newspapers by print circulation were from the New York Post and the Las Vegas Review-Journal, both owned by Trump allies.

• Trump received seven endorsements last cycle. Some of the papers that endorsed him then, such as the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette and the Boston Herald, didn't publish endorsements for president this year.

Between the lines: Many U.S. newspapers that used to be independent or family-owned now belong to large newspaper groups whose owners, often hedge funds or private equity groups, have decided to pull the plug on endorsements.

• Tribune Publishing and MediaNews Group, both owned by Alden Global Capital, said their more than 68 daily and 300 weekly papers would no longer endorse presidents in 2022.
• McClatchy, now owned by Chatham Asset Management, said last cycle its 30 papers wouldn't endorse a candidate unless its editorial board interviewed both nominees.
• Gannett — the largest owner of daily newspapers in America — said last week its 200+ daily papers, as well as its flagship national paper USA Today, wouldn't endorse presidential candidates this cycle.

Zoom out: Indepdently-owned newspapers are increasingly backing away from endorsements, drawing backlash.

• In scrubbing last-minute endorsements for Vice President Harris, billionaire owners of the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times — Jeff Bezos and Patrick Soon-Shiong, respectively — have been slammed for putting their potential business interests above their papers' independence, allegations both owners deny.

What to watch: The social media era has placed a heavier premium on celebrity endorsements that can reach millions of people online.

• While Hollywood A-listers like Taylor Swift, Cardi B and Jennifer Lopez are mostly lining up behind Harris, a few internet personalities and country stars are supporting Trump, including Jake Paul, Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock and Jason Aldean.

As Facebook's parent company has aggressively injected Meta AI into its products, it has fueled its systems with a bounty of customer data.

Why it matters: Meta knows a ton about you and billions of other people. It's counting on that knowledge to build AI that's both powerful and relevant — and it's also limiting customers' ability to say "no" to this use of their information.

Catch up quick: Meta AI has been among the fastest growing of the consumer AI systems, with more than 500 million people using the service each month, company leaders said on last week's earnings call.

• Meta's 20-year history has always been marked by vigorous collection of users' personal data for personalizing content feeds and targeting ads.

Zoom in: Meta says it can use any data shared publicly to Facebook and Instagram to train its AI systems.

• That means the company will use anything that you share with everyone on Facebook (not just with your friends or friends of friends), and anything posted to a standard, non-private Instagram account.
• Meta also says that "your interactions with AI features can be used to train AI models. Examples include messages to AI chats, questions you ask and images you ask Meta AI to imagine for you."
• That also includes photos taken with Meta Ray-Ban glasses that are used as part of an AI query.
• Notably, Meta is also not letting customers opt out of having their data used for training, except for those in Brazil and Europe.

Yes, but: The company does allow customers to delete data from their conversations with the Meta AI chatbot.

• Meta says that any content that users delete — either from conversations with Meta AI or from public posts on Facebook and Instagram — will not be used for future training.

The big picture: Meta has a bold vision for generative AI that involves using the technology to create an array of personalized content.

• The most widely used component is the Meta AI chatbot, which is now accessible from within Facebook, Messenger and WhatsApp (as well as on the Ray-Ban glasses).

Meta is also summarizing comments with AI and has said it will start using generative AI to create new content to fill customers' feeds.

• For starters, it's going to offer up AI-generated images based on customers' real photos. Meta says users will be able to further share those images if they like them, or turn them off if they don't.
• The company has tested a number of other ideas, including a since-ended trial that had Meta AI posting comments in existing threads. That test included a well-publicized case in which the AI chatbot appeared to post as if it were the parent of a disabled child.

Between the lines: Because Meta's services are largely free and ad-supported, the company benefits from people spending more time on them.

• In recent months, Meta has been sharing more existing content that comes from outside one's social network that its algorithms believe people will find engaging. The next step, already telegraphed, is using AI to create content it expects you will like.

What we're watching: Meta is likely to be an early test case for just how compelling AI-generated content can be, especially when turbocharged with a ton of personal information.

• Also worth paying attention to is how the ads Meta shows customers evolve in this world — including whether they begin to be personalized using generative AI.

Lies and propaganda about presidential candidates' stances, voting system security and the integrity of American democracy are multiplying ahead of Election Day.

Why it matters: Russia, China and Iran are peddling fake videos at a rate never seen before — and they're racking up likes and engagement on social media platforms.

The big picture: Election officials have stepped up their ability to publicly call out these videos, but it's unrealistic they'll be able to debunk every single one of them while administering a major election.

• Social media companies have also taken a hands-off approach to moderating election-related posts compared to the 2020 vote.

Threat level: Americans are experiencing a "fire hose of disinformation" this year, Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told reporters on Monday.

What election narratives are foreign actors pushing?

Expect false tales of voters tampering with mail-in ballots, non-citizens casting ballots and hacks of election infrastructure in social media posts.

• Officials have already caught Russia peddling videos that showed someone ripping up mail-in ballots and Haitian migrants illegally voting in Georgia.

Zoom in: Researchers at NewsGuard said Friday they've seen a viral fake video of voting machines in Kentucky not allowing voters to select Donald Trump's name.

• Another video claimed Vice President Harris and her husband were paid $500,000 for tipping off P. Diddy about a federal raid of his home, according to NewsGuard.

Who will detect and flag election disinformation?

The short answer: It depends.

The big picture: Social media platforms historically have removed these videos or suspended users that peddle lies about the outcome of the U.S. election.

• But in 2024, the information environment is more scattered. Many platforms have implemented more relaxed content moderation rules or made cuts to their safety units.

Instead, state and local election officials are trying to fill the void.

• Georgia's secretary of state and election officials in Pennsylvania's Bucks County were the first to attribute two viral AI-generated videos to Russia.

How do I know my vote is safe?

State and local election officials, as well as federal agencies, have invested years of resources into testing the physical and digital security of election infrastructure.

• CISA estimates that the agency and election community have conducted close to 1,300 physical security assessments and more than 700 cybersecurity assessments since the beginning of 2023, according to a fact sheet shared with reporters.
• CISA has also hosted more than 500 trainings on election security and 200 tabletop exercises to prepare for various security incidents in that same time period.

Reality check: CISA Director Jen Easterly told reporters yesterday that there has never been a "more secure" election than this year's.

Between the lines: While a lot of disinformation will emphasize voting machines specifically, ballots and the information they carry actually pass through an intense chain of custody that's designed to catch abnormalities.

• Nearly 70% of registered voters live in jurisdictions that use hand-marked paper ballots for most voters. Machines usually only come into play when counting votes in some jurisdictions.
• And only a small group of authorized election workers has access to those vote tabulators and the data they store.

The intrigue: Nearly every vote cast leaves a paper trail — which makes it easier to audit and verify that ballots are being cast as directed.

• If a voter uses an electronic machine to cast their ballot, they usually receive a printed copy of their selections that they can verify before submitting their ballot.

The bottom line: Many localities give voters a way to track when their vote is cast, and state election officials are ready to answer any voter questions about how their ballot is cast.

• The nonpartisan group Verified Voting has a hotline voters can call with any questions they have during the voting process, including those about registration, early voting and any obstacles they experience.

What do officials believe will come next?

The U.S. intelligence community and election security researchers have warned that foreign adversaries are going to step up their efforts in the days between Election Day and the inauguration in January.

• Expect more videos aimed at further upsetting supporters of a losing candidate and designed to incite violent protests, officials have said.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump spent the eve of Election Day campaigning in the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Monday.

Why it matters: Polls show the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates are effectively tied in all seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania — which Axios' Dave Lawler notes is likely to swing the election one way or the other.

The big picture: Harris said in her final pitch in Philadelphia's Benjamin Franklin Parkway that drew big crowds and celebrities including Oprah Winfrey and Lady Gaga that "momentum is on our side," as she emphasized she would be president for "all Americans."

• Former Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly joined Trump onstage in Pittsburgh, where he promised a "golden age" and announced that Joe Rogan had endorsed him.
• Harris held four separate events in Pennsylvania on Monday, while Trump also spent the day campaigning in Raleigh, North Carolina; Reading, Pa.; and Grand Rapids, Michigan.

In photos: How Harris and Trump spent final day campaigning

Go deeper: Dixville Notch Election Day vote ends in a 3-3 tie for Harris and Trump

Editor's note: This article has been updated with further details from the campaign events and more photos.

Boeing's strike that began in mid-September "has ended" after 59% of workers voted on Monday night to ratify a new contract, the union announced at midnight.

Why it matters: The walkout of thousands of machinists crippled Boeing's production in a year when the aerospace giant's reputation was already wounded amid high-profile quality and safety issues.

• The contract offer, endorsed by leaders of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) union, is the third the striking workers had considered after rejecting two others.

Driving the news: "The new contract includes a 43.65% compounded wage increase – 38% before compounding – over the four-year life of the contract," per an IAM statement.

• That's up from the 35% and 25% wage increases included in the two previous offers that the union members rejected.
• On top of higher wages, the contract would allow workers to use $5,000 initially allocated for a retirement match to boost their ratification bonus, Axios' Nathan Bomey reports.

What they're saying: Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said in a message to all staff that was shared with outlets including Axios early Tuesday that she was "pleased to reach a ratified agreement" with the unions.

• "While the past few months have been difficult for all of us, we are all part of the same team," he added.
• "We will only move forward by listening and working together. There is much work ahead to return to the excellence that made Boeing an iconic company."

IAM District 751 president Jon Holden and IAM District W24 president Brandon Bryant in a joint statement that they're "ready to help Boeing change direction and return to building the highest quality and safest airplanes in the world."

• The union members "are critical to that mission, and now have a stronger voice in the decision making process to ensure those needed improvements are made," they said.
• "Through this victory and the strike that made it possible, IAM members have taken a stand for respect and fair wages in the workplace."

State of play: Boeing released a staggering earnings report in October showing the company had lost $6.1 billion over the third quarter, which the report said reflects the impacts of the work stoppage.

• The aerospace giant launched a roughly $19 billion share sale last month in a scramble to raise funds.
• The strike was also reflected in Friday's U.S. jobs report, which showed weaker-than-expected job growth. The report indicated 44,000 transportation job disappeared last month (most of them from Boeing).
• President Biden issued a statement praising Boeing and the union for reaching an agreement, which he said was "important for Boeing's future as a critical part of America's aerospace sector."
• He noted it was achieved through the support of his economic team that included Labor Secretary Julie Su — whom the union praised for playing "a key role" in helping reach an "agreement that will protect access and pathways to the middle class for thousands of frontline workers."

Thought bubble, via Axios' Emily Peck: More hard work remains for Boeing Ortberg to begin healing the longstanding and contentious rift between the company's management and its union.

State of play: Ortberg wrote in prepared remarks regarding the third quarter results that "The trust in our company has eroded."

• He continued. "We're saddled with too much debt. We've had serious lapses in our performance across the company which have disappointed many of our customers."

Catch up quick: The previous contract, which expired in September, covered a vast majority of the 33,000 Seattle-area machinists who build the aerospace titan's jets.

• During the costly walkout, Boeing's CEO announced the company would slash 10% of its workforce, roughly 17,000 workers, and would delay deliveries of its 777X jet until 2026.

Go deeper: Boeing lines up $35 billion

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Election polling locations are open Tuesday and so are most businesses since the day is not a federal holiday.

Why it matters: No federal law mandates that employers give employees time off to vote and fewer than half of U.S. states require employers to provide paid time off to vote.

• Follow Axios' live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

Are schools closed on Election Day 2024?

The big picture: Schools across the country are closed for Election Day with many being used as polling locations.

• In many cases, schools close for safety concerns, according to National School Safety and Security Services, a school safety consulting firm.
• Other schools are closed because Election Day is recognized as a public holiday.

What states recognize Election Day as a holiday

State of play: Election Day is a public holiday for 14 states, according to the Movement Advancement Project.

• Five states require employers to provide paid time off for voting: Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York and West Virginia.
• Election Day is a holiday for nine states — Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Virginia — but employers are not required to give time off.
• State offices and courts are closed in states that recognize Election Day as a public holiday.

Are banks open on Election Day 2024?

Zoom in: Banks are open Tuesday and so is the Federal Reserve and stock markets.

• Banks generally close for federal holidays like Labor Day and Memorial Day.

Is there mail on Election Day? Do UPS and FedEx deliver?

The United States Postal Service is open Tuesday and delivering mail, which includes mail-in ballots.

• UPS and FedEx have normal pickup and delivery services Tuesday and stores are open regular hours too.

More from Axios:

• Election Day deals to cash in on with "I Voted" stickers
• When polls open and close on Election Day 2024
• Why Election Day is on a Tuesday in November
• Americans bet millions on presidential race

A Georgia poll worker was arrested and charged with mailing a bomb threat to election workers on Monday, the Department of Justice announced.

The big picture: The arrest comes as police step up security around the White House and Vice President Harris' residence in D.C. and National Guard units in several states and local law enforcement agencies prepare for possible Election Day violence.

• Unprecedented steps are being taken to protect election workers and ballots amid rising concern about voter intimidation and other threats, as the Proud Boys and other Trump-supporting extremist groups signal they'll be at polling sites on Tuesday.
• The Justice Department will monitor polls in multiple states for compliance with federal voting rights laws on Election Day.

Driving the news: Nicholas Wimbish, 25, of Milledgeville, Georgia, is accused of mailing a letter addressed to the Jones County elections superintendent on Oct. 17, purportedly from a "Jones County Voter" — one day after he" allegedly had a verbal altercation with a voter," per a DOJ. statement.

• Prosecutors allege this letter stated that Wimbish had "give[n] me hell" and that he was "conspiring votes" and that it made threats against him and others to "look over their shoulder" as the "voter" knew "where they go" and that the writer had "found home voting addresses for all them."
• The letter claimed "young men will get beatdown if they fight me" and "will get the treason punishment by firing squad if they fight back, while also threatening "rage rape" against the "ladies."
• "The letter concluded with a handwritten note, 'PS boom toy in early vote place, cigar burning, be safe,'" the DOJ alleges.

State of play: The case is part of the Justice Department's Election Threats Task Force that was established in June 2021 to address a rise in threats against poll workers.

• Wimbish is also charged with conveying false information about a bomb threat, mailing a threatening letter and making false statements to the FBI.
• If convicted, he faces a maximum penalty of 25 years in prison.

Go deeper: Some schools opt out of serving as polling sites amid rising threats

Some schools across the U.S. are electing not to serve as polling sites over security concerns.

The big picture: At a time when schools are face rising threats of violence, so are voting sites. Jurisdictions across the U.S. are taking steps to protect election workers amid concerns about voter intimidation and possible violence at the polls this November.

• Safety concerns have sparked some schools across the country, including in Arizona, Kentucky, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas to think twice before opening their doors to voters on Election Day.
• "It's becoming less and less common ... to see voting going on in schools with students present," National School Safety and Security Services president Kenneth Trump told Axios.

Zoom in: Schools spend an enormous amount of resources dealing with access control all year long, including securing their permitters, training staff to monitor hallways and doors, and managing visitors, said Trump, who has no relation to the former president.

• "Then on one or two days a year, we open the doors to anyone and everyone, not knowing who's there or who may have ill intentions," he added.
• "By the very nature of it, it just increases the risk by the fact that you're opening your doors," he said. "You have all the additional logistics, the management, and one more point to add to an already busy day for school principal or school safety officials."

State of play: There are essentially three options to reduce the risk — the first being to completely remove voting sites from schools.

• The second is hosting polling sites in schools without students present on campus. Some districts opt to have a professional learning day in the meantime.
• A third option is having polling sites at schools but amping up security and hosting the voting site in a part of the school that's further from the students, like in a gym.

Zoom out: Commissioner Benjamin Hovland, of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, told Axios that while there is growing concern over polling sites at schools, it's not a new issue and has been so for at least a decade.

• But schools are "a critical source of polling places for election officials," Hovland said, explaining that election officials are facing a challenge in finding adequate spaces that are centrally located, accessible and have sufficient parking.
• He pointed to a 2014 Obama-era Presidential Commission report that recommended, among other solutions to improve voter experience, the increased use of schools as polling places. The report suggested security concerns be met by scheduling an in-service training day for students and teachers on Election Day.

The bottom line: "Election or no election, polarized or not polarized, I would tell you that there's always some type of increased risk of opportunity," Trump said.

Go deeper: America's new election shields: panic buttons, bulletproof glass

Vice Presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) criticized Vice President Harris for disrespecting Americans moments before calling her "trash."

The big picture: In an effort to cast the GOP ticket in a diverging light, Vance linked Harris to President Biden apparently calling the MAGA base "garbage" last week, criticizing the VP for "the complete disrespect, the condescension and even the hatred in the way that she talks about her fellow citizens."

Zoom in: During a campaign rally in Atlanta on the eve of Election Day, Vance said took aim at Harris, saying, "Wouldn't it be nice to have an American president who loved the people of this country rather than hated the people of this country?"

• He added: "I want to ask us not to follow Kamala Harris' terrible example."
• Vance asked rally-goers not to discard lifelong relationships "because people vote the wrong way," saying, "Here in our movement, we love every citizen of this country. We want their prosperity because we love this nation, and that means loving the people who live here."
• Less than a minute later, Vance said, "In two days, we are going to take out the trash in Washington, D.C., and the trash's name is Kamala Harris."

Zoom out: Former President Trump has made insults against opponents a norm in his campaign rhetoric.

• Meanwhile, Vance dismissed Trump's association with a comedian at the Republican presidential nominee's Manhattan Square Garden rally who compared Puerto Rico to a "floating island of garbage."
• Vance responded to Tony Hinchcliffe's widely condemned remarks by saying he's "not worried about a joke that a comedian who has no affiliation" with the Trump campaign has made, adding: "We have to stop getting so offended at every little thing."

Flashback: After Hinchcliffe made the joke, Trump's representatives said it "does not reflect" his views nor those of the campaign.

• During a video call with progressive group Voto Latino, Biden responded to Hinchcliffe's jab, saying: "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it's un-American."
• Biden responded to backlash over his own comment online, writing on X, "Earlier today I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump's supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage — which is the only word I can think of to describe it."

Go deeper: GOP calls foul on Biden's "garbage" jab despite defending Trump rally